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Free 2013 Kentucky Derby Picks and Previews 5/4/13

Free Horse Racing Picks and Analysis - Kentucky Derby 139

Saturday, May 4th, 2013: The Kentucky Derby is scheduled to run at 6:24pm ET

See the Latest Odds


We’ve been handicapping this race for nearly 6-months and the time to open the gates is finally approaching.  Twenty three-year-olds have fought for their places in the gate and now that those spots have been filled, all that’s left is for the bell to ring and spend a shade over two minutes letting the dust settle in the 139th running of the Grade 1 Kentucky Derby.

Churchill Race 11 (6:24pm ET):  The $2,000,000 Grade 1 Kentucky Derby

Free 2013 Kentucky Derby Picks and Previews 5/4/13

Jamie Rhodes-USA TODAY Sports

Selections:  #12 Itsmyluckyday - #3 Revolutionary - #10 Palace Malice - #14 Verrazano

It’s tough to imagine the connections of #12 Itsmyluckyday could have been happier with their post for this race.  They seem to have taken a different approach to his final preparations for this one, but all reports say every step he’s taken has been on cue and physically he couldn’t look better.  The shape of this race should fit him like a glove and he’s up to the 10-furlong task, he should have every chance to take control in the late stages and maybe even pull right away.  He lost to Orb in the Florida Derby, but there is no doubt that he didn’t hit the track with his A-game.  The biggest knock has to be a rider that isn’t as used to the big stage as others are, but that wasn’t a problem for last year’s winner and I won’t hold a ticket that doesn’t have this guy’s number on it.  The #3 Revolutionary has been my favorite all along.  He hasn’t done anything on the track to discourage me along the way.  Some amateur-hour money will come in on this guy based on an inside post position and Calvin “Bo-rail” at the reins.  In my case, I will be using him despite those factors (that I’m obviously not crazy about).  You have to love the way this guy has gotten out of trouble in the past and maybe his late running style will prevent the tough post from being too much of a hindrance.  I still think he’s Pletcher’s best shot to visit the winner’s circle.  The #10 Palace Maliceis my pick to eventually separate himself as the talent of this 3-year-old class, but I’m not fully convinced he’s ready to do it just yet.  Born late in the season, his actual 3rd birthday will be on Oaks’ Friday, while all his rivals have already blown out their candles.  He seems to still be growing into himself and improving with each start.  While he’s been busy lately, this may not be the most opportune time for a career effort, but I wouldn’t put it past this son of Curlin that will, eventually, bust through in a huge way.  It’s a bit curious that the #14 Verrazano lost his title as Derby favorite sometime since winning the Wood Memorial.  It’s not every year you’ll find an undefeated graded winner in Pletcher’s barn be sent out as anything less.  That Wood got mixed reactions and it is my strong opinion that he could have run around the track another time without ever giving up his lead.  My main questions regarding this star is to what degree he’ll be able to relax early, how he’ll respond to getting dirt kicked in his face, and just how badly he wants another furlong.  I find him tough to pick at short odds, but the easiest to pick of the top few favorites, and an absolute must include on exotic tickets.

Full Field:

#1 Black Onyx                                    Bravo/Breen                        50-1

#2 Oxbow                                          Stevens/Lukas                    30-1

#3 Revolutionary                                Borel/Pletcher                      10-1

#4 Golden Soul                                   Albarado/Stewart                 50-1

#5 Normandy Invasion                        Castellano/Brown                 12-1

#6 Mylute                                          Napravnik/Amoss                 15-1

#7 Giant Finish                                   Espinoza/Dutrow                  50-1

#8 Goldencents                                  Krigger/O’Neil                      5-1

#9 Overanalyze                                  Bejarano/Pletcher                15-1

#10 Palace Malice                               Smith/Pletcher                     20-1

#11 Lines of Battle                             Moore/O’Brien                     30-1

#12 Itsmyluckyday                             Trujillo/Plesa                       15-1

#13 Falling Sky                                  Saez/Terranova                   15-1

#14 Verrazano                                   Velazquez/Pletcher                4-1

#15 Charming Kitten                           Prado/Pletcher                    20-1

#16 Orb                                            Rosario/McGaughey              7-2

#17 Will Take Charge                         Court/Lukas                        20-1

#18 Frac Daddy                                  Lebron/McPeek                   50-1

#19 Java’s War                                  Leparoux/McPeek                15-1

#20 Vyjack                                        Gomez/Rodriguez                15-1

Also Eligible:

#21 Fear the Kitten                            Garcia/Maker                       50-1

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