Floyd Mayweather Jr. Won't Make it 10 Rounds Against Manny Pacquiao
Floyd Mayweather (47-0, 28 KO's) vs. Manny Pacquiao (57-5-2, 38 KO)
Fight of the Century May 2, 2015 (MGM Grand Garden Arena)
The Line: Floyd Mayweather Jr. -215/ Manny Pacquiao +185 Over/Under: 11.5 Rounds See the Latest Odds
While the betting odds have come down for the May 2nd showdown between Floyd Mayweather Jr. and Manny Pacquiao, Mayweather is still clearly the betting favorite.
While I have seen both of these fighters live a number of times, I still don’t have a ticket to this one and this will be the first time I arrive in Las Vegas on fight week without one. To 100% honest I am pretty much over the whole ticket thing. Tickets weren’t released until last week, a week before the fight and it was rumored less than 500 went to the public, I wasn’t one of the “lucky” ones. Today I got an email from Ticketmaster saying they had VIP Packages available with fight tickets and dinner starting at $5,750 for the nose bleed seats, I guess Ticketmaster is also getting involved in the ticket scalping business.
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In any event, back to the fight. I have been asked over the years about this fight, if I thought it would ever happen and who would win if it did and to be honest while I thought the fight would be a good one over the years, I don’t see this being a great fight, I see Manny Pacquiao winning pretty easily, my guess is before the 10th round ever starts.
Before anyone even gets started about how Floyd has never been beaten, and how he beat Marquez easily who has been Pacquiao’s nemesis, styles make fights and Manny’s style is a disaster for Floyd. Here is the breakdown of how I get to Manny Pacquiao stopping Floyd Mayweather inside of 10 rounds.
1) Mayweather hasn’t fought anyone close to Pacquiao's Level – When we look at Mayweather’s undefeated record it reminds us of Rocky Balboa’s run in Rocky III before he had to face Clubber Lang, he has fought a list of tailor made opponents all fighting a style that plays right into Mayweather’s hands. What do Marco Maidana, Canelo Alvarez, Arturo Gatti, Carlos Baldomir, Ricky Hatton, and Miguel Cotto all have in common? These are all straight forward boxers and these are the top of the heap names as far as Mayweathers unbeaten record goes unless you want to ad an aging Oscar De La Hoya, a spent Diego Corrales or you just like saying Angel Manfredy or DeMarcus “Chop Chop” Corley (Hey, we all like Chop Chop). The reality of it is, Mayweather’s opponents aren’t all that impressive and even looking at Marquez, that fight was at 146 pounds, back in 2009 when JuanMa was fighting at 130 and moving up to that weight. Since it was Mayweather who brought up that he destroyed Marquez, Manny worked over Cotto who won a bunch of rounds and lost a lot of close ones against Mayweather. Aside from several of the names on Mayweather’s list Pacquiao has fought a Trilogy against Erik Morales who had never been down before facing Pacquiao, 4 fight’s against Marquez, beating De La Hoya and Cotto when he was the one moving up over 10 pounds and then the destruction of Antonio Margarito who looked to be nearly twice Pacquiao’s size. Sorry Shane Mosely, you were done before you fought either of these guys.
2) Freddie Roach – We can’t give Mayweather’s corner enough credit, to be honest I don’t think they get enough credit as Floyd seems to get it all when it comes to Team Mayweather but Team Mayweather doesn’t have a lot of experience against Freddie Roach. While Roach doesn’t have a ton of experience against the Mayweather camp, when we saw Oscar De La Hoya listen to Roach he fared very well against Mayweather, when Oscar stopped listening and doing, he started losing. Roach and Pacquiao are very much a team and a partnership in the ring, we will see it on Saturday as they pick Mayweather apart and Manny listens to Freddie’s every word and instruction.
3) The Angles – While we talked about Mayweather’s opponents earlier, what I didn’t go into was that Mayweather’s tailor made opponents come straightforward and throw straight big punches and in many cases are one-punch knockout guys. Manny Pacquiao throws punches fast and at a angles Floyd has never seen before and there is no sparring partner that can mimic his style. Once upon a time Pacquiao was a one handed fighter, a one-dimensional lefty who threw bombs only. After the first Marquez fight Manny suffered an injury to his left hand that forced him to learn how to use the right more effectively and it eventually became a power punch as well and after the stoppage of Morales in their second meeting, it became known as “Manila Ice”. Look for Pacquiao to use the right while Mayweather is looking for the left. More than likely it will be a right Mayweather never sees that is going to end this one.
4) Mayweather’s defense – Floyd Mayweather uses a shoulder roll for defense that has been effective, not just in stopping and dodging punches, but by really frustrating his opponents. Floyd makes it look like it is going to be a clean shot, only to evade the punch with the shoulder roll. Why have we heard over the years Southpaw’s give Mayweather trouble, because the should roll rolls his face right into a left hook. When Mayweather realizes this to get out of the way of the left, here comes a Pacquiao right out of left field.
5) Floyd didn’t wait long enough – It’s pretty clear Mayweather took this fight because he thought Pacquiao’s skills had diminished but actually Mayweather is two years older than Pacquiao. Mayweather at least talks about Manny having losses while he is unbeaten and while that is true, fighters with losses beat undefeated fighters all of the time, more often than not really. When we look at Pacquiao’s two recent losses, the loss to Bradley was simply bad judging and was no different than Manny’s one sided win in the rematch with the exception of the scorecards. When we look at Manny’s KO loss to Marquez, it was a back an forth action packed fight with both fighters getting off of the canvas with Pacquiao ahead on all judges cards and winning the round he was KO’d in with just a few seconds remaining. Pacquiao got sloppy, he went for it and left himself wide open to get hit with a big one and he was hit right on the button. Immediately following the fight Manny looked to have no lingering effects of being put to sleep and in the fights that have followed, none of which have been against top competition (and that includes Bradley), he has looked to be as good as ever. While Manny is aging, it doesn’t appear age is catching up with him. Against Cotto we saw it well as against Madiana especially in the first fight, Floyd Mayweather is fully capable of being hit and if Kenny Bayless doesn’t allow him to clench all night long, he his going to get often.
Some will say I am biased when it comes to boxing and I will admit I am, I have been following Manny and going to see all of his fights for well over 10 years at this point, and I have been to Mayweather’s as well, just not as many. Regardless of bias, I don’t see Floyd weathering the Pacquiao storm and answering the bell for the 10th round, that is unless the end comes even sooner.