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Auburn Tigers vs. Mississippi State Bulldogs Free Pick 9/14/13

Mississippi State Bulldogs (1-1) at Auburn Tigers (2-0)

NCAAF Football: Saturday, September 14, 2013 at 7:00 pm (Jordan-Hare Stadium)

The Line: Auburn Tigers -6 -- Over/Under: 51 See the Latest Odds

TV: ESPN2

The Auburn Tigers and the Mississippi State Bulldogs face-off on Saturday in a week 3 SEC college football match up.

Since winning the National Championship three years ago, the Auburn Tigers football team has been in a tailspin, but the 3-9 team of a year ago has started with two wins under new Head Coach Gus Malzahn. QB Nick Marshall has completed 55.6 percent of his passes and has also run for 80 yards and, most importantly, he has avoided turning the ball over. Tre Mason carries the load in the backfield, averaging 5.9 yards per carry, Corey Grant is averaging 11.6 yards per carry, and Cameron Artis-Payne is averaging 5.3 yards per carry. The Passing game is still on the lighter side, with Sammie Coates leading in catches with four, while Quan Bray and Jay Prosch have three catches. The Auburn defense has allowed 16.5 points per game, 135 rushing yards per game, and 308 passing yards per game. Chris Davis has 13 tackles, Robenson Therezie has 11 tackles and two interceptions, and LaDarius Owens and Cassanova McKinzy each have 10 tackles. This week will be Auburn’s stiffest test thus far.

Auburn Tigers vs. Mississippi State Bulldogs Free Pick 9/14/13

John Reed-USA TODAY Sports

The Mississippi State Bulldogs opened their season with a tough loss against Oklahoma State, where a game that was close at the half became one-sided affair in the second half. Mississippi State came back to win in week two against Alcorn State, but there are serious concerns for MSU. With QB Tyler Russell injured last week, Dak Prscott threw for 174 yards and a TD and Damien Williams went 8 for 13, but there was just a huge disparity in talent. Ashton Shumpert ran for 98 yards last week, Josh Robinson is averaging 4.9 yards per carry, and Nick Griffin is averaging 4.1 yards. Jameon Lewis leads Mississippi State with seven receptions, while Malcolm Lewis has four catches. Defensively, MSU held Oklahoma State to just 21 points and they will be tested here as well. Deontae Skinner has 15 tackles, Benardrick McKinney has 10 tackles, and Taveze Calhoun has nine tackles. While the win against Alcorn State counts, the Bulldogs could really use a conference win.

Auburn is 2-6 against the spread in their last eight games following a win, 1-5 against the spread in their last six SEC games, and 0-8 against the spread following a cover. Mississippi State is 2-6 against the spread in their last eight games, 1-4 against the spread against a team with a winning record, and 0-5 against the spread in their last five road games. The home team has covered the spread in four of the last five meetings of these two.

The total is set at 51 and I have this one coming in under the total. My stronger play is on who will cover the spread and I will post that pick in the Premium Area.

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Under 51

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