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Southern Methodist Mustangs at Texas A&M Aggies Free Pick 9/21/13

Southern Methodist Mustangs (1-1) at Texas A&M Aggies (2-1)

NCAAF Football: Saturday, September 21, 2013 at 7:00 pm (Kyle Field)

The Line: Texas A&M Aggies -26.5 -- Over/Under: See the Latest Odds

TV: ESPN U

The Southern Methodist Mustangs visit College Station this weekend for a date with Johnny Manziel and the 10th ranked Texas A&M Aggies.  

Texas A&M will look to avoid a lethargic start in this one after an emotional defeat at the hand’s of top ranked Alabama this past weekend 49-42.  Billed as the biggest game of the college football season, the Crimson Tide rode a strong day by AJ McCarron to get the revenge victory.  The Aggies were led by Johnny Manziel’s eye popping 464 passing yards and 5TDs and Mike Evans whopping 279 yards receiving.  The Aggies pulled close late but struggled to keep Alabama’s offense off the field as the Crimson Tide put together a number of lengthy drives.  Despite the loss, the Aggies rank 4th in passing yards per game and 4th nationally in scoring at 53 points per game thus far.

Southern Methodist Mustangs at Texas A&M Aggies Free Pick 9/21/13

Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports

SMU got their first win of the year with a victory over Montana State 31-30.  After falling behind 30-24 late, the Mustangs got a TD pass from Garrett Gilbert to seal the game - his lone toss of the night.  Gilbert finished with 317 yards passing but the Mustangs relied on tailback K.C. Nimechi and his counterpart Zach Line who rushed for just under 100 yards and a TD.  The Mustangs also got stellar play on special teams where JaBryce Taylor returned a punt for 55 yards prior to halftime.  The Aggies better be ready for another strong aerial attack this week as SMU has quietly settled in at 10th in the nation with a 352 yards per game passing average.

Some trends to consider -- Texas A&M is 5-0 against the spread in their last 5 games in September and SMU is 6-1 against the spread in their last 7 games after an ATS loss.

This one should have a few fireworks as both teams will air it out and both teams have shown a vulnerability to the big play.  I like this contest as my surprise on the week as the Aggies will experience a bit of fatigue carryover from the Alabama game and keep things interesting before pulling away late allowing SMU to get the impressive road cover.

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SMU +26.5

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