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Duke Blue Devils vs. Troy Trojans Free Pick 9/28/13

Troy Trojans (2-2) at Duke Blue Devils (2-2)

NCAAF Football: Saturday, September 28, 2013 at 3:00 pm (Wallace Wade Stadium)

The Line: Duke Blue Devils -11 -- Over/Under: 67 See the Latest Odds

TV: ESPN3

The Troy Trojans travel to Duke to play the Blue Devils on Saturday afternoon.

The Troy Trojans are 2-2 on the year after losing at Mississippi State 62-7 on Saturday. The Trojans started off the year 2-0, but lost to Arkansas State on the road before the blowout loss last week at Mississippi State. The highlight of the Trojans’ night came when QB Corey Robinson hit WR Eric Thomas on a 5-yard touchdown pass. Troy never recovered from the brutal second quarter when Mississippi State scored five touchdowns. Troy was extremely limited on offense against the Bulldogs as they finished with only 186 total yards. Troy QB Corey Robinson, who is the NCAA’s active leader in career passing yards, completed 15 of 25 passes for 105 yards with one touchdown and one interception. The rushing game wasn’t there for the Trojans as RB Burks finished with 43 yards on carries. Troy allowed 30 first downs and 551 total yards on defense, with 316 coming thru the air. Troy faced a decent SEC team on the road so it doesn’t surprise me that they were unable to get the offense into gear. The bad news this week is Troy plays on the road again, however; the Trojans should find it easier to move the ball and create stops on defense against a struggling Duke squad.

Duke Blue Devils vs. Troy Trojans Free Pick 9/28/13

Rob Kinnan-USA TODAY Sports

Duke dropped to 2-2 on the year after losing a shootout at home against Pittsburgh on Saturday, 58-55. The Blue Devils started out 2-0 this season but have since lost two conference home games against superior opponents. Duke’s offense played well against the Panthers with 532 total yards. QB Brandon Connette had four touchdowns passes and four interceptions, and he rushed for 101 yards and two touchdowns for Duke. Star WR Crowder finished with a team-high seven catches for 141 yards and a touchdown. WR Braxton also had a big game with 5 catches for 97 yards and a touchdown. RB Snead helped Connette in the running game, finishing with 59 yards on the ground. The Duke defense could not slow down the Panthers, allowing a whopping 598 total yards, with 424 coming via the pass. Pittsburgh was able to control the clock and hold the ball for almost two-thirds of the ballgame. The Blue Devils were unable to create any turnovers and get off the field on 3rd down. Duke struggled to stop the run against Georgia Tech last week and this week Pittsburgh took advantage of them thru the air. Duke will need to step up defensively against Troy, a team that will be eager to score after only putting up 7 last week.

Troy is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 non-conference games, but 1-3-2 ATS in their last 6 games overall. The Blue Devils are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 home games, but 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up loss. The over is 24-7 in Troy’s last 21 non-conference games. The over is 17-7-1 in Duke’s last 25 non-conference games.

These two teams have no recent meetings and both teams will be eager to get back on track with a win this week. Troy has not won a game on the road in a long time now, but they usually keep it close down to the end. I think the Trojans will have some success offensively against a weak Blue Devils defense. I also think Duke will have no problem scoring in this game. I believe the game will be a close, high scoring affair, with plenty of highlights. I’ll take Troy getting double digits on the road. I also the think the over is good play as both teams will score 30 points, and one team will break 40 in this one.

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Troy +11, Over 67

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