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Iowa State Cyclones vs. Texas Longhorns Free Pick 10/3/13

Texas Longhorns (2-2) at Iowa State Cyclones (1-2)

NCAAF Football: Thursday, October 3, 2013 at 7:30 pm (Jack Trice Stadium)

The Line: Iowa State Cyclones 8 -- Over/Under: See the Latest Odds


Storyline: Texas was idle last week, but Mack Brown may have delayed the inevitable with the Longhorns’ week four 31-21 win over Kansas State. Iowa State also broke out in their last game, a 31-28 victory over Tulsa that was much more convincing than the final score.

The Breakdown: The shackles finally came off for Texas against K-State and in a bizarro world sort of scenario, the floundering Longhorns flipped the script and rolled over the Wildcats with a well-balanced 452 total yards of total offense, 225 yards passing and 227 yards rushing, snapping a two-game skid. It was the Wildcats who were favored and gaining momentum with each passing week, but a porous Texas defense that surrendered a whopping 84 points and 1,128 total yards against BYU and Ole Miss combined (822 yards rushing), finally turned the tide. The Horns kept K-State to 390 total yards, but more importantly clogged up the gaping running lanes that caused their undoing against BYU and Ole Miss, holding the Wildcats to 115 yards on the ground and creating three pivotal second-half K-State turnovers. Texas did concede a monster outing to Jr. K-State WR Tyler Lockett, who caught 13 balls for 237 yards, breaking Jordy Nelson’s single game receiving record. On the offensive side, Soph. RB Johnathan Gray led the way with 141 yards and 2 touchdowns on 28 carries.  Jr. QB David Ash left the game after the second half to be re-evaluated for a head injury he suffered previously and didn’t return. Ash finished the game 14-of-25 for 166 yards and 1 touchdown. Sr. QB Case McCoy stepped in after the half and went 5-of-9 for 59 yards.

Iowa State Cyclones vs. Texas Longhorns Free Pick 10/3/13

Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports

Iowa State, meanwhile, overcame a two-game slide of their own Saturday against Tulsa behind 137 yards rushing from Jr. RB Aaron Wimberly and 255 yards and two touchdowns passing from Soph. QB Sam Richardson. Defensively, the Cyclones forced 4 Tulsa turnovers and held the Golden Hurricane to just 86 yards rushing and 3-of-12 third down conversions.

Betting Trends: Texas is 12-6 SU in its last 18 games, 1-4 ATS in its last 5 road games, 17-8 SU in its last 25 road games, 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games against Iowa State, 8-1 SU in its last 9 games against Iowa State, the total has gone over in 5 of the Longhorns’ last 6 games, and the total has gone over in 6 of their last 8 road games. Iowa State 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games, 1-4 SU in its last 5 games, 1-7 ATS in its last 8 home games, 1-6 SU in its last 7 home games, 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games against Texas, 1-8 SU in its last 9 games against Texas, and the total has gone under in 5 of Iowa State’s last 7 home games.

 Rick’s Pick: The line in this one is currently set at -8 for Texas and that looks to be an easy cover. The Longhorns were a little restrained on offense in dropping two straight , but it was the defensive issues that were ironed out against K-State and whether or not it’s a long-term fix shouldn’t matter against an Iowa State side that ranks 104th in the nation in rushing yards and points for, and 112th in points against.

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Texas -8

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