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Memphis Tigers vs. Central Florida Knights Free Pick 10/5/13

Central Florida Knights (3-1) at Memphis Tigers (1-2)

NCAAF Football: Saturday, October 5, 2013 at 4:30 pm (Liberty Bowl)

The Line: Memphis Tigers 10.5 -- Over/Under: See the Latest Odds


The 3-1 Central Florida Knights will try and put a tough loss over the weekend behind them as they head to Memphis for an AAC battle versus the 1-2 Tigers.

Central Florida welcomed #12 South Carolina to town this past weekend and held strong against the more talented Gamecocks before letting South Carolina’s run game wear them down as the second half wore on.  The Knights broke things open early when Storm Johnson punched in a 1 yard TD, and the UCF defense took advantage of an injury to Gamecock quarterback Connor Shaw.  The South Carolina offense did not get going until the second half when UCF allowed tailback Mike Davis to run wild on them for 167 yards and 3 TDs.  Blake Bortles finished the game with 358 yards passing, 2 touchdowns and 2 interceptions and Johnson finished with 64 yards on the ground to lead the Knights.  With this game behind them, UCF will need to avoid looking over Memphis at a huge contest at #7 Louisville in a few weeks.

Memphis Tigers vs. Central Florida Knights Free Pick 10/5/13

Rob Foldy-USA TODAY Sports

Memphis sits at 1-2 on the year and got their first win two weekends ago over Arkansas State 31-7.  The Tigers continue to rely on their strong defensive unit early on this season and in this one the Tigers held the Red Wolves to just 255 yards of total offense and controlled the ball for 11 minutes more than Arkansas State.  The Memphis offense was much more fluid in this one and Paxton Lynch was able to lean heavily on a very strong afternoon on the ground by tailbacks Brandon Hayes and Marquis Warford. The duo combined for 287 yards and 2 TDs on the ground and both will be relied on heavily the rest of the way as Memphis is sure to try and control the clock and lean on their D to make some noise as AAC play begins.

Some trends to consider -- UCF is 5-0 against the spread in their last 5 games overall and Memphis is 6-1 against the spread in their last 7 overall.

This game has all the makings of a trap contest for Central Florida.  The Knights have been tested on the road with their win over Penn State earlier this season but face the tough task of looking ahead to Louisville against a young team that has shown flashes of being pretty solid on both sides of the ball.  I like this game to be close for about 3 quarters and the veteran leadership of Blake Bortles to take control late as he leads a couple key drives to get the Knights the cover on the road as they head to their bye week.

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Central Florida -10.5

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