Oklahoma Sooners vs. TCU Horned Frogs Free Pick 10/5/13
TCU Horned Frogs (2-2) at Oklahoma Sooners (4-0)
NCAAF Football: Saturday, October 5, 2013 at 7:00 pm (Gaylord Family Oklahoma Memorial Stadium)
The Line: Oklahoma Sooners -10.5 -- Over/Under: 47.5 See the Latest Odds
Storyline: The Sooners shot up a couple spots to claim the #11 ranking this week behind their most convincing win to date, a 35-21 statement at Notre Dame that puts them on the fringe of the BCS discussion. TCU, meanwhile, are fresh off a 48-17 thrashing of SMU that saw the Horned Frog defense finally break out for a dominant performance.
The Breakdown: Oklahoma jumped out early against the Irish and never looked back, picking off ND quarterback Tommy Rees on the third play of the game for a pick six from Sr. LB Corey Nelson. On the very next play from scrimmage, Rees was again picked off, setting up an OU touchdown for a 14-0 lead. The Irish cut the lead to 14-7 just before the half, but Jr. QB Blake Bell found senior wideout Lacoltan Bester for a 26-yard TD with 42 seconds left in the half, essentially building a lead that ND could never challenge. The Sooners finished with 450 total yards, 238 passing and 212 rushing. Bell connected on 23-of-31 for 232 yards and 2 touchdowns. Sr. RB Brennan Clay led a strong ground game with 77 yards on 14 carries, while Bell added another 59 yards on 12 attempts. Soph. WR Sterling Shepard led all receivers with 5 catches for 83 yards and a TD. Defensively, the Sooners surrendered 324 total yards, holding Rees to just 104 yards on 9-of-24 passing and forcing him into three interceptions.
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TCU had a much easier time of it against an SMU side that could do absolutely nothing on the ground and not much more through the air, finishing with just 292 total yards and a dismal 16 yards rushing. The Horned Frogs were equally impressive in disrupting a Mustangs passing game that ranked 10th nationally coming into the game. Sr. SMU QB Garrett Gilbert was harassed all day long, sacked 7 times and picked off four. Gilbert finished with 276 yards and two touchdowns on 23-of-44 passing. On the offensive side, TCU got an efficient outing from Soph. QB Trevone Boykin, who finished 15-of-26 for 228 yards and 2 touchdowns.
Betting Trends: Oklahoma is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games, 9-1 SU in its last 10 games, 2-5 ATS in its last 7 home games, 21-4 SU in its last 25 home games and the total has gone under in 4 of Oklahoma’s last 6 games. TCU is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games, 17-8 SU in its last 25 games, 2-4 SU in its last 6 games, 21-4 SU in its last 25 road games, and the total has gone under in 4 of TCU’s last 5 road games.
Rick’s Pick: The line in this one is currently set at -10.5 for OU with a total of 47.5 points. As predicted, Blake Bell seems to have found his groove, but the TCU pass rush should provide his stiffest test yet. For the Frogs, Boykin is about as good a dual threat QB as there is in the Big 12. Outside of LSU, though, this Sooner defense will be the nastiest he’s faced. And the fastest. He saw limited snaps in that game so it’ll be interesting to see how he handles a defense he can’t run away from. Look for an OU cover as well as an over on the point total.
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