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South Florida Bulls vs. Cincinnati Bearcats Free Pick 10/5/13

Cincinnati Bearcats (3-1) at South Florida Bulls (0-4)

NCAAF Football: Saturday, October 5, 2013 at 7:00 pm (Raymond James Stadium)

The Line: South Florida Bulls 13.5 -- Over/Under: See the Latest Odds


The Cincinnati Bearcats look to start conference play off with a bang as they visit Tampa, Florida for their conference opener against the reeling South Florida Bulls.

Cincinnati had a bye week to prep for this contest and also to mourn the loss of Ben Flick, an offensive lineman who was killed in a car crash prior to their 14-0 win over Miami (OH) two weeks ago.  The Bearcats will surely be playing with heavy hearts as they take the field for the first time since the tragic incident.  In their contest against Miami (OH), the Bearcats used stout defense to overwhelm the Miami offense, holding them to just 87 total yards for the contest.  The Bearcats struggled themselves on offense and needed two 4th quarter rushing TDs to seal the deal.  Ralph Abernathy and Hosey Williams combined for over 160 yards rushing and quarterback Brandon Kay punched in the game clinching touchdown with just over two minutes remaining the contest.  With the win, the Bearcats defense now ranks 19th in the nation in points allowed.

South Florida Bulls vs. Cincinnati Bearcats Free Pick 10/5/13

David Kohl-USA TODAY Sports

South Florida fell to 0-4 this past weekend when the Miami Hurricanes rolled into Raymond James Stadium and ran away with the easy win 49-21.  Miami built a 35-7 halftime lead and built the lead to 49-7 before the Bulls scored two late TDs.  The Bulls turned the ball over 3 times on the afternoon and finished the day with just 268 total yards.  Once again, the lone bright spot for the Bulls was tailback Marcus Shaw who rushed for 127 yards and a TD on 20 carries.  Through 4 games, the Bulls rank 121st in the nation in points per game (14.5) and 113th in points against -- allowing nearly 40 points a game to opponents.  Aside from a matchup with struggling UConn in a few weeks, it is hard to find a game on the schedule where the Bulls won’t be heavy dogs.

Some trends to consider -- Cinnci is 14-5 against the spread in their last 19 overall and South Florida is 7-20-1 against the spread in their last 28 games on grass.

I like the Bearcats big in this one.  South Florida has been gashed through the air every week and shown a vulnerability against the run as well.  Look for Brandon Kay to test the Bulls secondry early and once a lead is built, expect a heavy dose of Abernathy and Williams as the emotional Bearcats roll on their way to the easy cover.

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Cincinnati -13.5

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