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Maryland Terrapins vs. Virginia Cavaliers Free Pick 10/12/13

Virginia Cavaliers (2-3) at Maryland Terrapins (4-1)

NCAAF Football: Saturday, October 12, 2013 at 3:30 pm (Byrd Stadium)

The Line: Maryland Terrapins -7 -- Over/Under: 44.5 See the Latest Odds

TV: ESPNU

The Virginia Cavaliers head up to Maryland to play the Terrapins on Saturday afternoon.

Virginia is coming off a loss to Ball State at home 48-27 and is now 2-3 on the year. The Cavaliers beat BYU in their season opener before getting blown out at home against Oregon. Virginia lost their first conference game at Pittsburgh three weeks ago and will look to bounce back against the Terps this weekend. Against Ball State, Virginia produced 459 yards, with 236 coming on the ground. QB David Watford completed 21 of 36 passes for 209 yards with one interception. RB Kevin Parks rushed 16 times for 104 yards and two touchdowns, while WR Johnson caught 3 balls for 46 yards in the loss. The difference in the game proved to be the four turnovers that Virginia gave up against Ball State and the 13 penalties that resulted in 93 yards. Virginia ranks 70th in points allowed, giving up 27.4 points per game this season. The Cavaliers have not been great offensively, ranking 110th in passing and 62nd in rushing offense in the country so far this season. Virginia will face a tough Maryland team on the road this weekend.

Maryland Terrapins vs. Virginia Cavaliers Free Pick 10/12/13

Mitch Stringer-USA TODAY Sports

Maryland lost their first game of the season on Saturday in blowout fashion, losing at Florida State 63-0, and dropping to 4-1 on the season. In the game against Florida State, Maryland, who came as the 2nd best offense in the ACC, gained only 234 yards on offense, with only 33 yards coming on the ground. Things became even worse for Maryland when starting QB C.J. Brown went down late in the second quarter with the Terps trailing 14-0. Brown suffered a concussion and is questionable for the game against Virginia this week. Brown has thrown for 1,125 yards and 7 touchdowns this season, while star WR Stefon Diggs has caught 20 balls for 424 yards with 3 touchdowns this season. The Terps defense that has been solid all year allowed a whopping 614 total yards against Florida State. Florida State controlled the clock and used a balance attack to exploit the Terps defense. Maryland ranks 33rd in points allowed this season, giving up only 20.8 points per game. The Terps rank 48th in passing yards with 257.6 yards per game and 53rd in rushing offense with 188 yards per game. Maryland will look to head home and bounce back against visiting Virginia this weekend.

The road team is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings. The under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in Maryland. The Cavaliers are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 meetings.

These teams have split the last four meetings, with Maryland wining last year at Virginia by 7 points. I think Maryland has a better team all around with more playmakers and deeper offensive and defensive lines up front. However, C.J. Brown is doubtful for the game on Saturday and QB Caleb Rowe will get the start for the Terps.  I think with a week to practice as the starter, Rowe will be better prepared for this game than he was coming in during the Floirda State loss.   I think Maryland gets the win and I would lean towards laying the 7 points. 

Maryland -7

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