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Mississippi State Bulldogs vs. Bowling Green Falcons Free Pick and Prediction 10/12/13

Bowling Green Falcons (5-1) at Mississippi State Bulldogs (2-3)

NCAAF Football: Saturday, October 12, 2013 at 7:30 pm (Davis Wade Stadium at Scott Field)

The Line: Mississippi State Bulldogs -10.5 -- Over/Under: 50 See the Latest Odds

TV: SEC, ESPN3

The Mississippi State Bulldogs and the Bowling Green Falcons face off on Saturday in Starkville for on out of conference college football match up.

The Mississippi State Bulldogs have played a tough schedule and have struggled against it losing three of their first five games including last week at LSU. The offense has run hot and cold and for the season they are averaging 32.4 points and 464.6 yards per game. QB Tyler Russell returned last week and he played well going 7 for 11 passing with two touchdowns and for the season he has completed 63 percent of his passes while his backup Dak Prescott has completed 53.3 percent of his passes with three touchdowns and two interceptions and he has rushed for 318 yards and six touchdowns. LaDarius Perkins leads the MSU ground attack averaging 4.9 yards per carry and Josh Robinson is averaging 5.1 yards per carry with a touchdown. Jameon Lewis leads the Mississippi State receivers with 19 catches and three touchdowns and Robert Johnson has 11 catches. Defensively Mississippi State is allowing 23.6 points and 360.6 yards per game with five interceptions, four fumble recoveries, and eight sacks. Bernardrick McKinney has 28 tackles, Deontae Skinner has 26 tackles, and Nickoe Whitley has 21 tackles. MSU just isn’t having the season they had hoped for on either side of the ball.

Mississippi State Bulldogs vs. Bowling Green Falcons Free Pick and Prediction 10/12/13

Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports

The Bowling Green Falcons are just a game away from being bowl eligible and while they have played a somewhat light schedule they have beaten the teams that have been put in front of them. No of BGSU’s wins have been close games as the offense is averaging 32 points and 480.8 yards per game. QB Matt Jonson has completed 65.2 percent of his passes with nine touchdowns and three interceptions and he has rushed for another touchdown. Travis Greene is averaging 5.9 yards per carry with three touchdowns and Andre Givens is averaging 7.0 yards per carry with two touchdowns. Shaun Joplin has 25 catches and a touchdown, Chris Gallon has 24 catches and two touchdowns, and Alex Bayer has 17 catches. Defensively Bowling Green is allowing 16.5 points and 344 yards per game with one interception, six fumble recoveries, and nine sacks. D.J. Lych leads the way for the Falcons with 35 tackles, BooBoo Gates has 33 tackles, and Ryland Ward has 28 tackles. Last time Bowling Green went on the road against a BCS conference team they were stomped by Indiana for their only loss of the year.

Mississippi State is 11-4 against the spread in their last 15 home games, 5-1 against the spread in their last sox home games against a team with a winning road record, and 0-5 against the spread following a double digit home loss. Bowling Green is 6-1 against the spread against a team with a losing record, 11-4 against the spread in their last 15 games, and 4-1 against the spread in their last five road games.

When BGSU went to Indiana I gave them more than a puncher’s chance but they didn’t respond and looking at this game they face a lot of the same issues, mainly size and depth. MSU has been hit and miss and if there appears to be a spot where they should be on their game this looks to be it. While the Point Spread is on the high side laying the points with the SEC team at home is my pick though probably not one I will be playing this weekend as I see much better spots. 

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Mississippi State Bulldogs -10.5

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