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Cincinnati Bearcats vs. Connecticut Huskies Free Pick 10/19/13

Connecticut Huskies (0-5) at Cincinnati Bearcats (4-2)

NCAAF Football: Saturday, October 19, 2013 at 12:00 pm (Nippert Stadium)

The Line: Cincinnati Bearcats -14.5 -- Over/Under: See the Latest Odds

TV: ESPN U

The lowly UConn Huskies travel to Cincinnati Saturday afternoon for an AAC battle with the 4-2 Cincinnati Bearcats.

A bye week and the firing of their head coach were not enough to help UConn find the win column as the Huskies fell at home this past weekend to the South Florida Bulls 13-10.  This game featured little offense and a late USF field goal proved to be the difference.  The bright spot for the Huskies was running back Lyle McCombs who broke out of what seems like a 2 year rut to rush for 164 yards and a 52 yard TD in the second quarter that gave UConn the early lead.  Unfortunately not much else worked for UConn -- the Huskies finished the contest with just 149 passing yards and no passing TD’s, despite a +3 edge in time of possession.  With the loss, the Huskies now rank 118th in the country in rushing yards (78 per game) and points per game (16.4).  Things get no easier with a trip to hostile Nippert Stadium Saturday.

Cincinnati Bearcats vs. Connecticut Huskies Free Pick 10/19/13

Andrew Weber-USA TODAY Sports

Cincinnati’s up and down season took a turn back upwards this past weekend as the Huskies racked up 28 first half points before turning up the defensive intensity and shutting the Owls out in the 2nd half on their way to the 38-20 victory.  The Bearcats totaled 100 more yards than the Owls and Brandon Kay was very efficient with 270 yards and 2 td’s on the night.  Tion Green led all rushers with 91 yards and 2 td’s on just 18 carries.  The Bearcats saw 5 different tailbacks carry the ball and compiled a +17 advantage in time of possession for the game.

Some trends to consider -- UConn is 1-5 against the spread in their last 6 road games and Cinnci is 8-3 against the spread in his last 11 home contests.

Cincinnati has shown a tendency to play down to their opponents this season but UConn has struggled to even move the ball at times in recent weeks.  The Bearcats should control both lines of scrimmage and I expect a healthy dose of ball carriers to be the difference in this one as the Bearcats wear down the Huskies throughout the game on their way to the cover and their 5th overall victory.

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Cincinnati -14.5

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