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Toledo Rockets vs. Navy Midshipmen Free Pick - 10/19/13

Navy Midshipmen (3-2) at Toledo Rockets (3-3)

NCAAF Football: Saturday, October 19, 2013 at 12:00 pm (Glass Bowl)

The Line: Toledo Rockets -6.5 -- Over/Under: See the Latest Odds

TV: ESPNEWS

The Navy Midshipmen take their option attack on the road to face the Toledo Rockets Saturday.


Toledo thrashed Western Michigan 47-20 as a 24 point favorite in what was a must win contest that evened their record to 3-3. The Rockets could really use a string of wins, but their schedule isn't the easiest in the world, which doesn't change the fact that they have to win some games versus strong competition. Toledo took care of business versus Western Michigan with a 528-378 edge in real estate behind a dominating rushing attack that totaled 360 yards and averaged over nine yards per touch. Doug Fluellen was a monster on the ground with 220 yards on 23 carries with four touchdowns, including a 66 yarder. Terrance Owens (11-25/149) wasn't as effective through the air, but did throw for a score and didn't turn the ball over, which was all Toledo needed.

Toledo Rockets vs. Navy Midshipmen Free Pick - 10/19/13

Raj Mehta-USA TODAY Sports


Even though Navy is 3-2 on the year and the option is averaging over 280 yards, something still seems to be off with this team right now. A 35-7 defeat at Duke in week seven was basically a case of not being able to play catch up after falling behind 28-7. The Middies ground game produced 230 yards and averaged over 4 1/2 yards per tote with a combination of nine player getting carries. Keenan Reynolds (5-13/89) didn't have enough success through the air to get his team back in contention and an interception and a pair of lost fumbles certainly didn't help the cause. The Navy defense gave up 435 yards, but struggled to slow Anthony Boone and the Blue Devils through the air and they totaled almost 300 yards with three touchdowns.


I am not fond of laying a score with Toledo because that Navy option can be a handful to handle, although I'm not sure it's operating at peak efficiency. I believe the Rockets can at least control it and have the weapons to score so I'll back them...

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Toledo -6.5

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