South Florida Bulls vs. Louisville Cardinals Pick-Odds-Prediction 10/26/13
Louisville Cardinals (6-1) at South Florida Bulls (2-4)
NCAAF Football: Saturday, October 26, 2013 at 12:00 pm (Raymond James Stadium)
The Line: South Florida Bulls 20.5 -- Over/Under: See the Latest Odds
TV: ESPN 2
The 6-1 Louisville Cardinals look to rebound from a tough loss to UCF as they pay a visit to the South Florida Bulls Saturday at noon on ESPN2.
Louisville comes into this one fresh off their first loss of the season -- a 38-35 defeat at the hands of the UCF Knights. Louisville was favored in this contest and looked as though they were going to steamroll to 7-0 as they built a 28-7 lead early before UCF turned on the gas for a late rally. Louisville surrendered 21 points in the final 4:50 of the 3rd quarter as the Knights took advantage of turnovers and rode Storm Johnson to tie the score. A Dominique Brown run made it 35-31 Louisville before the knights marched down the field and scored on a 2 yard pass to win it with :23 remaining. Teddy Bridgewater threw for 241 yards and 2 touchdowns with no picks but the Cardinals were undone by two costly fumbles. Eli Rogers led all receivers with 10 catches and 95 yards and a touchdown. With their undefeated season hopes out of reach, the Cardinals are very much in play for the AAC title and the quality bowl bid that goes with it.
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South Florida welcomes the Cardinals to town after a bye week and riding a solid two game win streak that has them on the brink of salvaging a season that was spinning out of control quickly. Prior to the bye, the Bulls nailed a field goal with just over 4 minutes remaining to defeat the Connecticut Huskies 13-10. South Florida was pretty inept on offense, but did a good job defensively through the air against the Huskies and refused to give up any plays deep all night long. The Bulls managed just 226 yards in this one and will need better production from quarterback Eveld moving forward. Eveld completed just 8 passes for the game and managed only 106 yards through the air -- stats that will rarely get you a road win. The Bulls scored their only touchdown on a 44 yard fumble return by Aaron Lynch in the 2nd quarter. Despite their early season struggles, the Bulls find themselves in a three way tie for 1st place in the AAC.
Some trends to consider -- Louisville is 6-2 against the spread in their last 8 games on grass and South Florida is 7-19-1 against the spread in their last 27 games at home.
South Florida has played much better of late and their inspired play on the defensive side of the ball has been very encouraging. Louisville remains the class of this conference and I expect them to bounce back strong with a big game from Teddy Bridgewater and DeVante Parker. Expect the Cardinals to get the win here but the USF defense, a week to gameplan and Louisville coming off an emotional loss to be key factors in South Florida getting the cover at home.