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Cincinnati Bearcats vs. Southern Methodist Mustangs Pick-Odds-Prediction 11/9/13

Southern Methodist Mustangs (3-4) at Cincinnati Bearcats (6-2)

NCAAF Football: Saturday, November 9, 2013 at 12:00 pm (Nippert Stadium)

The Line: Cincinnati Bearcats -10.5 -- Over/Under: See the Latest Odds

TV: ESPN3

The 3-4 Southern Methodist Mustangs take to the road this weekend for a conference battle with the 6-2 Cincinnati Bearcats at noon.

SMU got a chance to rest their offense with a bye last week after racking up a whopping 728 yards against Temple in a 59-49 conference win on October 26th.  The Mustangs battled back from down 28-7 to tie the game and then exchanged TD’s with Temple before a late pass TD and rushing TD by Garrett Gilbert sealed the win.  Gilbert finished the day 37-53 for 538 yards and 3 touchdowns -- easily the best passing performance of the season in the AAC, maybe nationally.  Gilbert added 97 yards and two TD’s on the ground and receivers Thompson and Holman combined for 367 yards and 4 receiving TD’s.  SMU did just enough on D to secure the win but will need to clean up the penalties (75 yards) and turnovers (3) if they want to have success on the road this weekend.

Cincinnati Bearcats vs. Southern Methodist Mustangs Pick-Odds-Prediction 11/9/13

Justin Ford-USA TODAY Sports

Cincinnati got their sixth win of the year with a strong road performance at Memphis a week and a half ago.  The Bearcats built a 14-7 halftime lead and never looked back en route to the 34-21 win.  Brandon Kay had a decent game, throwing for 321 yards and 1 TD and the Bearcats also racked up two other touchdowns on the ground, despite being held to only 108 rushing yards among three different backs.  The Bearcats issues with penalties continued as they were flagged for 75 total penalty yards -- some coming at costly moments when Memphis was keeping things close early in the second half.  One more win would make the Bearcats officially bowl eligible given one of their early season romps was over a 1-AA opponent.

Some trends to consider -- SMU is 7-3 against the spread in their last 10 games after an ATS loss and Cinnci is 4-1 against the spread in their last 5 home games.

Both of these teams have some quality offensive weapons and the Bearcats have the superior defense by a wide margin.  If Cincinnati can slow down SMU’s high octane passing attack, they should get the easy cover.  Unfortunately for the Bearcats, I don’t see that happening and like Garrett Gilbert and company to keep this one close with their big play capabilities.  SMU gets the cover and Cinnci rides the home crowd to escape with the win.

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SMU +10.5

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