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Baylor Bears vs. Texas Longhorns Pick-Odds-Prediction 12/7/13

Texas Longhorns (8-3) at Baylor Bears (10-1)

College Football: Saturday, December 7, 2013 at 3:30 pm (Floyd Casey Stadium)

The Line: Baylor Bears -13.5 -- Over/Under: See the Latest Odds

TV: FOX

Storyline: Baylor’s dreams of a  storybook ending now seemingly long past, a more earthly scenario that has the Bears wining a share of the Big 12 title or winning it outright with a victory over Texas, depending on how Oklahoma State fares against Oklahoma, is now a certainty. Texas, meanwhile, also has a chance at salvaging its season, as well as Mack Brown’s job, with a win over Baylor and an OU win over Ok State, resulting in an unlikely Big 12 championship and BCS bowl berth.

The Breakdown: The Bears somehow still possess the best offense in the land, but based on their last two outings you wouldn’t know it. Baylor’s usually highly-productive offense stalled again this week against TCU after hitting a wall against Oklahoma State the week before. The Bears did put up 41 points to TCU’s 38, but two TDs came from the defense and bailed out a Baylor team that was held scoreless in the 4th quarter. The Horned Frogs reached the Baylor 23-yard line and appeared to be in position for at least a game-tying field goal with less than 20 seconds to play when TCU QB Casey Pachall was picked off in the end zone by safety Terell Burt to seal the victory. Baylor posted 370 total yards, 206 passing and 164 rushing, for its lowest output of the season. RBs Lache  Seastrunk and Glasco Martin after missing two games with injuries, but neither had much of an impact, with 24 carries for 94 yards and 17 carries for 69 yards respectively. QB Bryce Petty finished 19-of-38 for 206 yards, 2 TDs and 1 INT, his lowest numbers of the season, and Levi Norwood led all receivers with 7 catches for 83 yards and 1 TD.

Baylor Bears vs. Texas Longhorns Pick-Odds-Prediction 12/7/13

Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports

Texas routed Texas Tech 41-16 Thursday to keep its Big 12 title hopes afloat. The Longhorns got strong rushing performances from Malcolm Brown with 27 carries for 128 yards and Joe Bergeron, who carried 17 times for 102 yards and 1 TD and another efficient outing from QB Case McCoy, who connected on 10-of-19 for 139 yards and 2 TDs. WR Mike Davis led all receivers with 4 catches for 112 yards and 2 TDs. Defensively, Texas conceded 396 total yards, 302 passing and 94 rushing, while forcing 3 turnovers and keeping the Red Raiders to 5-of-19 third down conversions.

Betting Trends: Baylor is 14-3 ATS in its last 17 games, 5-0 ATS in its last 5 home games, 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games against Texas, 2-5 ATS in its last 7 home games against Texas, the total has gone over in 6 of Baylor’s last 7 home games and the total has gone over in 4 of Baylor’s last 5 games against Texas. Texas is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games, 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games against Baylor, 5-2 ATS in its last 7 road games against Baylor, the total has gone over in 6 of Baylor’s last 7 home games and the total has gone over in 4 of Baylor’s last 5 games against Texas.

Rick’s Pick:  Baylor is currently a 13.5 point home favorite here and there’s a whole lot at stake for both of these teams, but particularly Mack Brown and the Longhorns. Texas was dead in the water at 1-2 and to even get to the point of having an outside shot at a Big 12 title seemed next to impossible just a short time ago, but the run should end here for the Horns. Safety Ahmad Dixon will be sitting out the first half because of a targeting hit in the TCU game, which should have an impact but the odds are with Baylor being Baylor this week and not stumbling three weeks in a row. The Horns won’t win straight up, but two touchdowns might be a bit much to lay down here so the points are the better play.

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Texas -13.5

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