San Diego State Aztecs at Fresno State Bulldogs - 10/3/14 CFB Pick, Odds, Prediction
San Diego State Aztecs (2-2) at Fresno State Bulldogs (2-3)
College Football: Friday, October 3, 2014 at 10:00 pm (Bulldog Stadium)
The Line: Fresno State Bulldogs -3 -- Over/Under: 57.5 See the Latest Odds
TV: CBS Sports Network
The San Diego State Aztecs and Fresno State Bulldogs meet Friday night at Bulldog Stadium.
The San Diego State Aztecs are trying their best to keep their head above water but may find that difficult without quarterback Quinn Kaehler. Due to a shoulder injury, true freshman Nick Bawden will get the start, a quarterback who had interest from BCS schools and has a strong arm. With the change at quarterback, expect the Aztecs to ride running back Donnel Pumphrey even more than they already have, as he has topped 100 yards in three of four games and is averaging 6.2 yards per carry. With a freshman QB and the injury to receiver Ezell Ruffin, San Diego State is very limited offensively and will be forced to call a conservative game on the offensive end. That’s bad news for an Aztecs team that’s already 85th in the country in points scored per game. Defensively, the San Diego State Aztecs are allowing 20.8 points, 383.3 yards and have forced six turnovers and 11 sacks. Trey Lomax leads San Diego State with 32 tackles and Alex Barrett has 5.5 tackles for loss.
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The Fresno State Bulldogs have won back-to-back games after a slow start and are looking to get back to .500. Offensively, Fresno State turns to junior running back Marteze Waller, who has 457 yards and three touchdowns on 73 carries. The Bulldogs are averaging 4.9 yards on the ground and have won 11 straight games when topping 200 rushing yards. While Brian Burrell is completing only 58.2 percent of his passes and has thrown a pick in back-to-back games, Fresno State has one of the more underrated receivers in the country in Josh Harper, who has caught six or more passes in three of the four games and is on pace to top last year’s impressive season. Even without Derek Carr, Fresno State has a balanced offense. Defensively, the Fresno State Bulldogs are allowing 41.2 points, 509.2 yards and have forced five turnovers and eight sacks. Kyrie Wilson leads Fresno State with 41 tackles and Ejiro Ederaine has six tackles for loss.
The Aztecs are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 conference games and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. win. The Bulldogs are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 conference games and 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS win. The road team is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 meetings.
Fresno State is too talented offensively, and I'm not sure the Aztecs have what it takes to keep up, especially with a freshman taking over at quarterback. You would think the line would be a little higher, but I'll gladly lay a field goal with the better team that's at home.