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San Diego State Aztecs at New Mexico Lobos - 10/10/14 CFB Pick, Odds, Prediction

San Diego State Aztecs (2-3) at New Mexico Lobos (2-3)

College Football: Friday, October 10, 2014 at 9:30 pm (University Stadium)

The Line: New Mexico Lobos +4 -- Over/Under: 51 See the Latest Odds

TV: ESPNU

The San Diego State Aztecs and New Mexico Lobos play Friday night at University Stadium.

The San Diego State Aztecs have lost three of their last four games and will once again be without senior quarterback Quinn Kaehler due to a shoulder injury. Freshman Nick Bawden will get the nod again, and he completed only 37.5 percent of his passes for a touchdown and two interceptions in a loss to Fresno State. San Diego State is likely going to give running back Donnel Pumphrey a heavy dose of carries, as he leads the Aztecs with 561 yards and nine touchdowns. Pumphrey has scored in four of the five games this season and will have to have a great game here if the Aztecs are to win on the road. San Diego State will also be without leading receiver Eric Judge, who continues to miss time with a collarbone injury and has missed the last two weeks. Defensively, the San Diego State Aztecs are allowing 21.4 points, 369.6 yards, and they’ve forced eight turnovers and 14 sacks. Trey Lomax leads San Diego State with 36 tackles and Calvin Munson has two interceptions.

San Diego State Aztecs at New Mexico Lobos - 10/10/14 CFB Pick, Odds, Prediction

USA TODAY Sports

The New Mexico Lobos have won two of their last three games and would love to get their first home win of the season. New Mexico lives and dies with its running game that’s averaging 6.1 yards per carry and has five different players with more than 200 rushing yards. New Mexico has 19 running plays of 20 or more yards, and Jhurell Pressley leads the way with 387 yards and four touchdowns. New Mexico has thrown the ball only 56 times compared to 265 rushing attempts and quarterback Lamar Jordan is completing 65.6 percent of his passes for three touchdowns and zero interceptions. Basically, if you can’t stop New Mexico's ground game, you have no chance. Defensively, the New Mexico Lobos are allowing 33.6 points, 501.6 yards, and they’ve forced seven turnovers and nine sacks. Dakota Cox leads New Mexico with 73 tackles and Brett Bowers has 4.5 tackles for loss.

The Aztecs are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. loss. The Lobos are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 home games and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall. The Aztecs are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 meetings in New Mexico.

I don't see how anybody can back the San Diego State Aztecs with all the injuries they have. Yes, New Mexico's defense is about the worst in the country but at least the Lobos can move the ball and score points. I'll take my chances with the home team, as the Lobos will be jacked up to win their first home game of the season. 

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New Mexico Lobos +4

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