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Baylor Bears vs. TCU Horned Frogs - 10/11/14 CFB Pick, Odds, Prediction

TCU Horned Frogs (4-0) at Baylor Bears (5-0)

College Football: Saturday, October 11, 2014 at 3:30 pm (McLane Stadium)

The Line: Baylor Bears -10 -- Over/Under: See the Latest Odds

TV: ESPN2

The TCU Horned Frogs and Baylor Bears play Saturday afternoon in a huge Big 12 showdown at McLane Stadium.

The TCU Horned Frogs gained everybody’s attention last week with a win over the Oklahoma Sooners and hope to keep things rolling. TCU continues to turn to its defense to win games, as it’s allowing 13.5 points, 279.3 yards, and has forced 12 turnovers and 15 sacks. TCU has won five of its last six games when holding a team under 30 points. Paul Dawson leads TCU with 37 tackles and James McFarland has three sacks. Offensively, Trevone Boykin is completing 61.5 percent of his passes for 10 touchdowns and two interceptions, and he also leads the Horned Frogs with 260 rushing yards. Kolby Listenbee and Josh Doctson are the main targets for TCU, as they’ve combined for more than 400 receiving yards and five touchdowns. Deante' Gray has caught three touchdowns in his last two games and TCU’s passing game has produced 10 plays of 25 or more yards. The TCU horned Frogs have scored no less than 30 points in all four games this season.

Baylor Bears vs. TCU Horned Frogs - 10/11/14 CFB Pick, Odds, Prediction

USA TODAY Sports

The Baylor Bears 28 points against the Texas Longhorns was their fewest point total since last year’s loss to Oklahoma State. Baylor is still first in the country in points per game thanks to a ground game that is averaging five yards per carry and has five players with at least two touchdowns. Shock Linwood leads the way with 449 rushing yards and eight touchdowns, as he’s scored in every game this season. Bryce Petty is completing 59.4 percent of his passes for 1,024 yards, nine touchdowns and one interception. On the outside, Baylor has six different players with double-digit receptions, and KD Cannon and Jay Lee have combined for more than 40 catches and nine touchdowns. Defensively, the Baylor Bears are allowing 12.4 points, 267.2 yards, and they’ve forced nine turnovers and 19 sacks. Bryce Hager leads Baylor with 29 tackles and Shawn Oakman has five sacks.

The Horned Frogs are 4-0 ATS vs. a team with a winning record and 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games overall. The Bears are 22-4 ATS in their last 26 home games and 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 conference games. Horned Frogs are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 meetings, while the home team is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.

In the last four meetings between these two teams, TCU has either won or lost by three or less points. The Horned Frogs are one of the few teams that can slow down Baylor offensively and make things interesting. With so much on the line in this game, I have no choice but to take the free points. I'm a little concerned about a let down here, but Gary Patterson will have his team ready.

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TCU Horned Frogs +10

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