Troy at South Alabama - 10/24/14 CFB Pick, Odds, Prediction
Troy Trojans (1-6) at South Alabama Jaguars (4-2)
College Football: Friday
The Line: South Alabama Jaguars -14 -- Over/Under: 54.5 See the Latest Odds
The Troy Trojans and South Alabama Jaguars will play Friday night at Ladd-Peebles Stadium.
The Troy Trojans are still looking for their first road win of the season. Troy is obviously one of the worst teams in the country and it starts with the defense. The Troy Trojans are allowing 40.7 points, 469.3 yards, and they’ve forced 10 turnovers and 12 sacks. Troy has allowed 24 or more points in 16 of its last 17 games. Montres Kitchens leads Troy with 45 tackles and Tyler Roberts has seven tackles for loss. Offensively, Brandon Silvers is completing 68.7 percent of his passes for five touchdowns and three interceptions. Troy has 17 passing plays of 25 or more yards and six receivers with double-digit receptions. Chandler Worthy leads Troy with 320 receiving yards and three touchdowns, while K.D. Edenfield has six of his 17 receptions in his last two games. Troy averages 3.7 yards per carry, and Brandon Burks and Jordan Chunn have combined for close to 500 rushing yards and six touchdowns.
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The South Alabama Jaguars have won three straight and find themselves in the thick of the Sun Belt standings. South Alabama is a defensive team first, holding teams to 22.3 points, 379.2 yards, and has forced 11 turnovers and 18 sacks. South Alabama has won nine of its last 12 games when allowing 28 or less points. Terrell Brigham leads South Alabama with 47 tackles and Theo Rich has seven tackles for loss. Offensively, Brandon Bridge is completing 51.4 percent of his passes for eight touchdowns and four interceptions. In his last two games, Bridge has seven total touchdowns and zero interceptions. Shavarez Smith and Danny Woodson have combined for close to 500 receiving yards and have caught seven of the Jaguars eight touchdowns. South Alabama is averaging 4.6 rushing yards per game, and Jay Jones leads the way with 393 yards and three touchdowns.
The Trojans are 3-12 ATS in their last 15 games in October and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 conference games. The Jaguars are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 conference games and 4-11 ATS in their last 15 home games.
If you've been betting the over in every Troy game the last couple of years, you'd be rich. The over has hit in 21 of the last 5 of the Trojans last 26 games overall. Troy's defense is flat out garbage. With that trend in place, you have no choice but to side with the over the projected total.