Ball State at Massachusetts - 11/12/14 College Football Pick, Odds, and Prediction
Ball State Cardinals (3-6) at Massachusetts Minutemen (2-7)
College Football: Wednesday, November 12, 2014 at 8:00 pm (Gillette Stadium)
The Line: Massachusetts Minutemen -3.5 -- Over/Under: 60.5 See the Latest Odds
The Ball State Cardinals and Massachusetts Minutemen play Wednesday at Warren McGuirk Alumni Stadium.
The Ball State Cardinals have split their last four games and have to win out in order to reach a bowl game. Jack Milas is completing 57.1 percent of his passes for six touchdowns and two interceptions. Milas has one touchdown and three picks in his last two games, and Ball State has 13 passing plays of 25 or more yards. KeVonn Mabon and Jordan Williams have combined for more than 1,000 receiving yards and eight touchdowns, while Chris Shillings has just two catches in his last two games after picking up at least two catches in each game before that. Ball State’s ground game is averaging four yards per carry, as Jahwan Edwards leads the way with 920 yards and nine touchdowns. Edwards has scored a touchdown in five straight games and Ball State has won seven of its last 10 games when rushing for 150-plus yards. Defensively, the Ball State Cardinals are allowing 27.6 points, 402.2 yards, and they’ve forced 19 turnovers and nine sacks. Ben Ingle leads Ball State with 71 tackles and Darnell Smith has 5.5 tackles for loss.
The Massachusetts Minutemen have won two of their last three games and look to keep the momentum. UMass is all about it’s passing game that’s led by Blake Frohnapfel, who is completing 54.2 percent of his passes for 23 touchdowns and eight interceptions. Frohnapfel, who is probable with a shoulder injury, has eight touchdowns and three picks in his last three games, and UMass has 27 passing plays of 25 or more yards. Tajae Sharpe and Jean Sifrin have combined for more than 1,500 receiving yards and 10 touchdowns, while Rodney Mills has nine of his 26 receptions in his last two games. Massachusetts's ground game is averaging 3.3 yards per carry, and Shadrach Abrokwah leads the way with 369 yards and six touchdowns. Defensively, the Massachusetts Minutemen are allowing 35 points, 458.3 yards, and they’ve forced 11 turnovers and 11 sacks. Jovan Santos-Knox leads UMass with 96 tackles and Joe Colton has seven tackles for loss.
The Cardinals are 43-16 ATS in their last 59 road games and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games in November. The Minutemen are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games in November and 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
Neither team focuses on defense, so the over may be worth a look here. However, I'm going to back the Massachusetts Minutemen and the small chalk, as they're at home and have an explosive enough passing game to pull away late in the game. Ball State is very inconsistent on both sides of the ball and will have a hard time keeping up with UMass passing attack.