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San Diego State vs. Air Force - 11/21/14 College Football Pick, Odds, and Prediction

Air Force Falcons (8-2) at San Diego State Aztecs (5-5)

College Football: Friday, November 21, 2014 at 9:30 pm (Qualcomm Stadium)

The Line: San Diego State Aztecs -3.5 -- Over/Under: See the Latest Odds

TV: CBS Sports Network

The Air Force Falcons and San Diego State Aztecs play Friday night at Qualcomm Stadium.

The Air Force Falcons have won four straight games and are looking for their first double-digit winning season since 1998. Air Force is led by a ground game that’s averaging 4.6 yards per carry and has 24 rushing plays of 20 or more yards. Jacobi Owens and Kale Pearson have more than 1,600 rushing yards and 11 touchdowns, while Shayne Davern has three rushing touchdowns in his last two games. Owens is questionable with a foot injury. Pearson is completing 61.4 percent of his passes for 13 touchdowns and two interceptions. Pearson has six total touchdowns and zero picks in his last two games. Jalen Robinette and Garrett Brown have combined for more than 1,000 receiving yards and 10 touchdowns, and Garrett Griffin is the only other Air Force player with double-digit receptions. Defensively, the Air Force Falcons are allowing 23.6 points, 378.1 yards, and they’ve forced 29 sacks and 15 turnovers. Jordan Pierce leads Air Force with 94 tackles and Alex Hansen has nine tackles for loss.

San Diego State vs. Air Force - 11/21/14 College Football Pick, Odds, and Prediction

USA TODAY Sports

The San Diego State Aztecs have split their last four games but hope to remain undefeated at home. San Diego State is a defensive minded team that’s allowing 22 points, 349.1 yards, and has forced 21 sacks and 16 turnovers. The San Diego State Aztecs have won nine of their last 10 games when allowing 24 or less points. Josh Gavert leads San Diego State with 66 tackles and Alex Barrett has nine tackles for loss. Offensively, Quinn Kaehler is completing 58.3 percent of his passes for eight touchdowns and nine interceptions. Kaehler has four touchdowns and one pick in his last two games, and San Diego State has 15 passing plays of 25 or more yards. Eric Judge and Ezell Ruffin have combined for more than 600 receiving yards and four touchdowns, while Lloyd Mills has seven of his 19 catches in his last three games. San Diego State’s ground game is averaging 5.4 yards per carry, as Donnel Pumphrey leads the way with nearly 1,400 yards and 15 touchdowns. Chase Price is the only other SDSU player with a rushing score.

The Falcons are 5-12 ATS in their last 17 conference games and 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games overall. The Aztecs are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games in November and 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 games overall. The Falcons are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 meetings in San Diego State and 0-5 ATS in their last 5 meetings overall.

Assuming that Jacobi Owens plays for Air Force, you have to like the value you're getting here with the Falcons. Air Force has been a tough team all season long and has one of the best rushing attacks in college football. San Diego State has been shaky all year against tough comp and has lost two of its last three games. Give me the points, as Air Force could easily win this outright. 

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Air Force Falcons +3.5

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