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Arkansas State vs. Texas State - 12/5/15 College Football Pick, Odds, and Prediction

Texas State Bobcats (3-8) at Arkansas State Red Wolves (8-3)

College Football: Saturday, December 5, 2015 at 3:00 pm (Centennial Bank Stadium)

The Line: Arkansas State Red Wolves -21.5 -- Over/Under: 67 See the Latest Odds


The Texas State Bobcats will travel to Centennial Bank Stadium to take on the Arkansas State Red Wolves in College Football action this Saturday afternoon.

The Texas State Bobcats dropped to 3-8 (2-5 Sun Belt) on the season after being defeated by the Idaho Vandals, 38-31, this past Saturday. Idaho was able to take the lead late in this one with a 4 yard TD run by Elijhaa Penny with just over a minute left to play and outgained Texas State by a 508-480 margin. Leading the way for the Bobcats was QB Tyler Jones who had 289 passing yards with 2 TD and an INT. On the season, Texas State is averaging 27.8 ppg on 417.8 total yards per game (227.5 passing, 190.4 rushing). Leading the way for the Bobcats has been QB Tyler Jones who has thrown for 14 TD and 9 INT on the season and is averaging 217.1 yds/game. Tyler Jones is a duel-threat QB who has also collected 10 rushing TD’s on the season while averaging 49.73 rushing yards per game. RB Robert Lowe is the leading rusher for Texas State as he has 7 TD’s and is averaging 83.18 yards per game. C.J. Best (1 TD, 45.1 yds/game) and Jafus Gaines (43.6 yds/game) lead the way for the Bobcats WR’s. Defensively, Texas State is allowing 37.7 ppg on 520.6 yards per game (270.4 passing, 250.3 rushing). The Bobcats have turnover the ball over 18 times on the season and have a turnover margin of -5.

Arkansas State vs. Texas State  - 12/5/15 College Football Pick, Odds, and Prediction


The Arkansas State Red Wolves stay perfect in conference play and improved to 8-3 (7-0 Sun Belt) on the season after defeating the New Mexico State Aggies, 52-28, this past Saturday. Arkansas State outgained New Mexico State by a 605-434 margin and forced the Aggies into committing 4 turnovers. Leading the way for the Red Wolves was WR Tres Houston who had 155 yards and a TD on 7 receptions. On the season, Arkansas State is averaging 39.7 ppg on 440.2 yards per game (214.1 passing, 226.1 rushing). Leading the way for the Red Wolves has been a strong rushing attack that consists of Michael Gordon (8 TD, 82.91 yds/game), Warren Wand (3 TD, 55.27 yds/game), and Johnston White (13 TD, 46.91 yds/game). QB Fredi Knighten has thrown for 17 TD and 7 INT while averaging 188.3 passing yards per game. Tres Houston (10 TD, 46.0 yds/game) and Dijon Paschal (3 TD, 45.5 yds/game) have been the biggest receiving threats for the Red Wolves. Defensively, Arkansas State is allowing an average of 29.9 ppg on 398.4 yards per game (254.2 passing, 144.2 rushing). The Red Wolves have forced opponents into committing 31 turnovers on the season and have a turnover margin of 9.

The Bobcats are 5-2 ATS vs. a team with a winning record however, are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 road games. The Red Wolves are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 conference games and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall.

Texas State has lost 4 of their last 5 games and is allowing their opponents to average 36.75 ppg in those losses. Arkansas State has been dominant in conference play as they’ve used a dynamic offense to averaged 47.7 ppg on conference play this season. Texas State has a decent QB in Tyler Jones that might be able to generate some points for the Bobcats, however, if Arkansas State and put up over 600 yards of offense against New Mexico State, they could probably put up even more against the weak Texas State defense. I’m surprised that this line isn’t higher than what it is currently as I think Arkansas State wins this one by at least 30. Take Arkansas State to cover.  

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Arkansas State Red Wolves -21.5

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