Air Force vs. Georgia State - 9/10/16 College Football Pick, Odds, and Prediction
Georgia State Panthers (0-1) at Air Force Falcons (1-0)
College Football: Saturday, September 10, 2016 at 2:00 pm (Falcon Stadium)
The Line: Air Force Falcons -17 -- Over/Under: TBD See the Latest Odds
TV: Campus Insiders
The Georgia State Panthers will travel to Falcon Stadium to take on the Air Force Falcons this Saturday afternoon in College Football action.
The Georgia State Panthers (0-1; 0-0 Sun Belt) allowed the Ball State Cardinals to score 14 unanswered points in 4th quarter and fell in their season opener by a 31-21 margin. Georgia State was outgained by Ball State by a 455-272 margin and had no answers for the Cardinals rushing attack as they allowed Ball State to gain a total of 325 rushing yards. Leading the way for Georgia State was WR Penny Hart who had a TD and 76 receiving yards on 7 receptions. QB Conner Manning got the start for the Panthers and finished the game completing 21 of 32 passes for 163 yards, 1 TD, and 1 INT. The Panthers wasn’t able to get much of a running game going and was led by duel-threat QB Aaron Winchester who had 59 yards and a TD on 8 carries. Georgia State has one of the best secondaries in the Sun Belt and it showed as the Panthers held Ball State’s QB, Riley Neal, to just 130 passing and two interceptions. The Panthers need to find answers on the defensive line as the Panthers allowed the Cardinals to get 4 rushing TD’s and average 6.3 yards/rushing attempt. Georgia State was able to sneak into a bowl game last season by winning their last 4 regular season games however, a large part of this was due to the offensive generated by QB Nick Arbuckle (336.0 passing yds/game) who is no longer available. Georgia State has to be a bit concerned that they only scored 14 offensive points against a Ball State defense that allowed over 500 total yards per game last season and isn’t projected to be much better in 2016.
USA TODAY Sports
The Air Force Falcons raced out to a 28-7 halftime lead and won their season opener by a 37-21 margin over the FCS Abilene Christian Wildcats this past Saturday. Air Force had little trouble generating offensive as the Falcons outgained the Wildcats by a 603-360 margin while gaining 29 first downs. Leading the way for Air Force was WR Ronald Cleveland who had a 62-yard touchdown catch, and gained 48 yards and TD on the ground. QB Nate Romine completed 5 of 10 passes for 184 yards and 2 TD’s while RB Jacobi Owens had 119 rushing yards on 12 carries. The Air Force defense was solid against the Abilene Christian rushing attack holding the Wildcats to just 86 rushing yards on 31 carries, however, did struggle a bit against QB Dallas Sealey as Sealey finished the game with 274 passing yards and 3 TD’s against the Falcons. Air Force finished last season with one of the best rushing attacks in the country (319.1 rushing yds/game) and it looks as if they Falcons will once again be as dangerous as ever in the backfield as they had 6 RB’s with over 40 yards in the victory over Abilene Christian. Air Force has an experienced defense that generally relies on creating pressure on the QB, however, the Falcons will need to find a way to generate more turnovers as the Falcons ranked 98th last season in TO Margin and didn’t force a turnover against Abilene Christian.
The Panthers are 9-0 ATS in their last 9 road games vs. a team with a winning home record however, 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game. The Falcons are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in September and 11-4 ATS in their last 15 home games.
Georgia State is a solid all-around team however, replacing QB Nick Arbuckle looks like it’s going to a bigger problem than initially expected as QB Conner Manning couldn’t take advantage of a very weak Ball State Cardinals secondary. Air Force wasn’t able to cover their spread in the first game however, I’m not too concerned about the performance as the Falcons really seemed to just put it in cruise control in the 2nd half after gaining a 37-14 lead. Georgia State certainly has the weapons at WR to do some damage on offensive however, I just don’t see how the Panthers will be able to do anything on the defensive end to slow down the Air Force rushing game and I think the Falcons easily pull away in this one to cover the large spread. Take Air Force to cover.