New Mexico State vs. New Mexico - 9/10/16 College Football Pick, Odds, and Prediction
New Mexico Lobos (1-0) at New Mexico State Aggies (0-1)
College Football: Saturday, September 10, 2016 at 8:00 pm (Aggie Memorial Stadium)
The Line: New Mexico State Aggies +11.5 -- Over/Under: 64.5 See the Latest Odds
TV: Aggie Vision; ESPN College Extra; Fox Sports Arizona Plus; ESPN 3
The New Mexico Lobos will travel to Aggies Memorial Stadium to take on the New Mexico State Aggies this Saturday in the Rio Grande Rivalry.
The New Mexico Lobos had little trouble opening the season in the win column after they defeated the FCS South Dakota Coyotes, 48-21, this past Saturday. New Mexico used a big 21-point 2nd quarter to take a 35-14 halftime lead and had a strong defensive 2nd half to secure the win. New Mexico had little trouble moving the football as they outgained South Dakota by a 615-323 margin. New Mexico was impressive running the football as they gained 428 rushing yards and was led by Teriyon Gipson (8 carries, 181 yards, 2 TD), Richard McQuarley (13 carries, 55 yards, 2 TD), and Tyrone Owens (10 carries, 48 yards). QB Austin Apodaca completed 12 of 16 passes for 172 yards and 2 TD’s. Matt Quarells (2 rec, 72 yards, 1 TD) and Patrick Reed (4 rec, 47 yards) led the way for the Lobos WR’s. Defensively, New Mexico had trouble with South Dakota QB Chris Streveler who caused some damage with both his arm and his legs, however, were able to make the Aggies commit 3 turnovers in the victory. New Mexico improved as a defense in 2015 and although they ranked 97th in the country in total yards allowed (437.6 yards/game), they were able to hold teams to just 28.4 ppg which ranked 28th in the country. New Mexico is returning 10 starters on the defense this season and are led by LB Dakota Cox who had 4 tackles in the season opener against South Dakota.
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The New Mexico State Aggies didn’t have any answers for the UTEP Miners and dropped their season opener after a 38-22 defeat this past Saturday. New Mexico State was outgained by UTEP by a 518-345 margin and allowed the Miners to gain 289 rushing yards in the loss. New Mexico State was without their best offensive weapon in RB Larry Rose III who was recovering from a minor sports hernia. Offensively, New Mexico State was led by QB Tyler Rogers who completed 17 of 41 passes for 206 yards and gained 63 yards and a TD on the ground. RB Jason Huntley finished the game with 53 yards and a TD on 12 carries. WR Jaleel Scoot (5 rec, 68 yards) and Royce Caldwell (3 rec, 57 yards) led the way for the Aggies WR’s. Defensively, New Mexico State defensive was led by LB Rodney Butler (15 tackles) and DB Jacob Nwangwa (14 tackles). New Mexico State returned 7 starters from last year’s squad however, new Defensive Coordinator, Frank Spaziani, will need to quickly find ways to improve this defense as last season the Aggies ranked 125th in the country in scoring defense (45.0 ppg) and 124th in total yards (522.3 yds/game).
The Lobos are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall and 7-3 ATS in their last 7 road games. The Aggies are 16-34-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record and 5-14 ATS in their last 19 games overall.
Both of these defenses have been known to struggle however, New Mexico seems to be the more experienced defense and looks as if they are heading more in the right direction than the Aggies. It will be important to monitor the line in this one as it will probably shift if New Mexico State’s Larry Rose III is ruled out (currently looks like he is going to play). The Lobos biggest weakness is defending the pass which shouldn’t be too much of a worry against the Aggies and even if Rose III plays, I think New Mexico will be able to put up plenty of points on the Aggies defense to win the Rio Grande Rivalry and cover this spread. Take New Mexico to cover.