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Air Force vs. Navy - 10/1/16 College Football Pick, Odds, and Prediction

Navy Midshipmen (3-0) at Air Force Falcons (3-0)

College Football: Saturday, October 1, 2016 at 3:30 pm (Falcon Stadium)

The Line: Air Force Falcons -8.5 -- Over/Under: 51 See the Latest Odds

TV: CBS Sports Network

The Navy Midshipmen will travel to Falcon Stadium take on the Air Force Falcons this Saturday afternoon in College Football action.

The Navy Midshipmen improved to 3-0 (2-0 AAC) on the season after defeating the Tulane Green Wave, 21-14, on September 17th. In a tight game throughout, Navy was able to secure the victory after a late 1-yard TD run by Will Worth with just under three minutes to play. Navy outgained Tulane by a 346-261 margin however, lost the turnover battle by a 2-0 margin. Leading the way for Navy was QB Will Worth who completed 5 of 12 passes for 59 yards to go along with 113 rushing yards and a TD. On the season, Navy is averaging 33.7 ppg on 420.3 total yards per game (104.0 passing, 316.3 rushing). Offensively, Navy uses a triple-option attack that has been led by RB Chris High (8.67 att/game, 87.67 yds/game, 4 TD), QB Will Worth (17.67 att/game, 59.67 yds/game, 4 TD), Dishan Romine (4.67 att/game, 39.0 yds/game), and RB Toneo Gulley (4.00 att/game, 37.67 yds/game). QB Will Worth has completed just 14 of 23 passes for 267 yards and a TD on the season. WR Jamir Tillman is the biggest receiving threat for Navy as he is averaging 3.0 rec/game for 47.7 yds/game. Defensively, Navy is holding their opponents to an average of 18.0 ppg on 359.7 total yards per game (195.7 passing, 164.0 rushing).

Air Force vs. Navy - 10/1/16 College Football Pick, Odds, and Prediction

USA TODAY Sports

The Air Force Falcons remained a perfect 3-0 (1-0 MW) on the season after defeating the Utah State Aggies, 27-20, this past Saturday. Air Force got a Jacobi Owens TD late in the 4th quarter to give the Falcons a 24-13 lead in which they were able to hang on for a victory. Air Force was outgained by Utah State by a 414-326 margin but did win the turnover battle by a 2-0 margin. Leading the way for Air Force was QB Nate Romine who completed 5 of 13 passes for 113 yards and a TD. On the season, Air Force is averaging 37.3 ppg on 486.3 total yards per game (127.0 passing, 359.3 rushing). Offensively, Air Force also runs an option offense which is led by RB Jacobi Owens (7.67 att/game, 67.67 yds/game, 2 TD), RB D.J. Johnson (17.33 att/game, 66.0 yds/game), QB Nate Romine (13.67 att/game, 51.0 yds/game), RB Shayne Davern (12.33 att/game, 46.0 yds/game, TD), and WR Tyler Williams (5.67 att/game, 44.33 yds/game, 3 TD). QB Nate Romine has completed 13 of 32 passes for 3 TD while averaging 121.3 yds/game. WR Jalen Robinette (2.0 rec/game, 40.7 yds/game, TD), WR Ronald Cleveland (0.7 rec/game, 36.3 yds/game, TD), and TE Ryan Reffitt (1.0 rec/game, 27.3 yds/game, 2 TD). Defensively, Air Force is holding their opponents to an average of 18.3 ppg on 314.3 total yards per game (262.7 passing, 51.7 rushing).

The Midshipmen are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games overall and 4-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. The Falcons are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a straight up win and 6-1 ATS in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.

Navy lost QB Tago Smith in their season opener but still has been able to be successful with Will Worth taking over the triple-option attack for the Midshipmen. Air Force picked up a nice win on the road at Utah State and have one of the most experienced squads that they’ve had under head coach Troy Calhoun. I think Air Force is the better team in this one but as both teams should know how to slow down each other’s rushing attacks, I think this will be a close game in which Navy takes it with the points. Take Navy and the points. 

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Navy Midshipmen +8.5

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