Georgia Southern at Arkansas State - 10/5/16 College Football Pick, Odds, and Prediction
Georgia Southern Eagles (3-1) at Arkansas State Red Wolves (0-4)
College Football: Wednesday, October 5, 2016 at 8:00 pm (Centennial Bank Stadium)
The Line: Arkansas State Red Wolves +7 -- Over/Under: 55 See the Latest Odds
The Georgia Southern Eagles and Arkansas State Red Wolves square off in a Sun Belt showdown Wednesday night at Centennial Bank Stadium on ESPN2.
The Georgia Southern Eagles look to build on their solid 3-1 start and haven’t lost back-to-back games since the 2013 season. Favian Upshaw is completing 53.8 percent of his passes for 409 yards, four touchdowns and two interceptions. Upshaw and Kevin Ellison have combined for five touchdown passes this season. Montay Crockett and BJ Johnson III have combined for 327 receiving yards and one touchdown while Wesley Fields has five receptions. The Georgia Southern Eagles ground game is averaging 317.7 yards per contest, and Upshaw leads the way with 254 yards and two touchdowns. Defensively, Georgia Southern is allowing 19.8 points and 305.8 yards per game. Ironhead Gallon leads the Georgia Southern Eagles with 36 tackles, Darrius Sapp has one sack and Robert Brice II has one interception.
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The Arkansas State Red Wolves are desperate for a big home victory that would give them their first win of the year and snap a five-game losing streak overall. Justice Hansen is completing 58.1 percent of his passes for 746 yards, four touchdowns and three interceptions. Hansen has moved the chains through the air 26 times this season. Blake Mack and Cam Echols-Luper have combined for 571 receiving yards and one touchdown while Chris Murray has six receptions. The Arkansas State Red Wolves ground game is averaging 80.7 yards per contest, and Warren Wand leads the way with 228 yards and one touchdown. Defensively, Arkansas State is allowing 36 points and 494.5 yards per game. Justin Clifton leads the Arkansas State Red Wolves with 37 tackles, Chris Odom has two sacks and Blaise Taylor has one interception.
The Eagles are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games and 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games in October. The Red Wolves are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 conference games and 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games overall. The over is 19-7 in Red Wolves last 26 games overall and the under is 8-3 in Eagles last 11 games overall.
I really like taking points with the home team when the games are played in the middle of the week, as weird things tend to happen. The crowd gets into the game and the players are up for it considering it's the only game on schedule. However, here I can't. Arkansas State is downright awful defensively, as only eight teams are allowing more yards per game and the Red Wolves are allowing nearly 240 rushing yards per contest. Georgia Southern is one of the best rushing teams in the country and can attack a defense in a variety of formations. Add the fact the Red Wolves just lost at home to Central Arkansas despite being a 16.5-point favorite.
I have to back the Georgia Southern Eagles as more of a fade from the Arkansas State Red Wolves.