New Mexico vs. Boise State - 10/7/16 College Football Pick, Odds, and Prediction
Boise State Broncos (4-0) at New Mexico Lobos (2-2)
College Football: Friday, October 7, 2016 at 9:00 pm (University Stadium)
The Line: New Mexico Lobos +17.0 -- Over/Under: See the Latest Odds
TV: CBS Sports Network
The 19th ranked Boise State Broncos will travel to University Stadium (NM) to take on the New Mexico Lobos this Friday night in College Football action.
The 19th ranked Boise State Broncos improved to 4-0 (1-0 MW) on the season after defeating the Utah State Aggies, 21-10, this past Saturday. Boise State only had a 7-3 halftime lead in this one however, scored 14 unanswered points in the 2nd half to take control of the game and secure the win. Boise State outgained the Aggies by a 384-358 margin however, did lose the turnover battle by a 1-0 margin. Leading the way for the Broncos was RB Jeremy McNichols who had 132 rushing yards to go along with a 61-yard TD catch. On the season, Boise State is averaging 33.8 ppg on an average of 475.0 total yards per game (298.3 passing, 176.8 rushing). Offensively, Boise State has been led by the dynamic Jeremy McNichols who is arguably the most explosive offensive weapon in the entire Mountain West. On the season, McNichols has 10 total TD’s (7 rushing; 3 receiving) while averaging 126.0 rushing yds/g and 54.0 receiving yds/g. QB Brett Rypien has completed 58.6% of his passes for 6 TD and 3 INT while averaging 256.0 yds/g. Thomas Sperbeck (6.0 rec/g, 107.8 yds/g, 3 TD) and Cedrick Wilson (3.5 rec/g, 66.3 yds/g, 2 TD) have been the biggest threats at the receiver position for the Broncos. Defensively, Boise State is holding their opponents to an average of 18.0 ppg on 358.0 total yards per game (286.0 passing, 72.0 rushing). The Broncos have only forced 2 turnovers this season and currently have a turnover margin of -4.
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The New Mexico Lobos snapped their two game losing streak and improved to 2-2 (1-0 MW) on the season after defeating the San Jose State Spartans, 48-41, this past Saturday. New Mexico had a comfortable 41-20 lead entering the 4th quarter and held on for the victory after allowing the Spartans to outscore them by a 21-7 margin in the final quarter. New Mexico outgained San Jose State by a 491-443 margin. Leading the way for the Lobos was RB Teiryon Gipson who had a TD and 156 rushing yards on just 11 carries. On the season, New Mexico is averaging 38.8 ppg on 476.0 total yards per game (129.0 passing, 347.0 rushing). The Lobos have the 2nd ranked rushing offense in the country which is led by RB Teriyon Gipson (10.33 att/g, 133.0 yds/g, 5 TD), RB Tyrone Owens (14.0 att/g, 77.0 yds/g, TD), RB Richard McQuarley (10.0 att/g, 50.5 yds/g, 7 TD), and QB Lamar Jordon (9.67 att/g, 49.33 yds/g, TD). New Mexico lost starting QB Austin Apodaca after a collarbone injury suffered against Rutgers and will go with QB Lamar Jordon who has completed just 12 of 19 passes on the season for 129 yards and an INT. Leading the way for the Lobos receivers has been Matt Quarells (1.8 rec/g, 30.3 yds/g, TD), Patrick Reed (1.8 rec/g, 29.8 yds/g, TD), and Dameon Gamblin (2.3 rec/g, 19.5 yds/g). Defensively, New Mexico is allowing their opponents to average 32.8 ppg on 355.8 total yards per game (208.0 passing, 147.8 rushing). The Lobos currently have a minus 1 turnover margin on the season.
The Broncos are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games however, just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up win. The Lobos are 6-2 ATS vs. a team with a winning record however, 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games in October.
Boise State has moved into the top-25 ranking however, hasn’t looked as dominant as expected with tough wins against Oregon State on the road and Utah State at home. New Mexico has one of the best rushing attacks in College Football however, have struggled on the defense end even though the Lobos returned 9 starters on a defense that ranked 28th last season in scoring defense. There is a lot to like about Boise State in this game as they come in with the 5th ranked rushing defense in the country and have Jeremy McNichols leading the offensive charge however, New Mexico was able to pull off the upset against the Broncos in Boise last season and as I just don’t feel Boise State is really firing on all cylinders at the moment, I think the Lobos and their rushing offense will do just enough in front of their home crowd to cover with the points. Take New Mexico and the points.