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San Diego State vs. UNLV - 10/8/16 College Football Pick, Odds, and Prediction

UNLV Rebels (2-3) at San Diego State Aztecs (3-1)

College Football: Saturday, October 8, 2016 at 10:30 pm (Qualcomm Stadium)

The Line: San Diego State Aztecs -17.5 -- Over/Under: 60 See the Latest Odds

TV: ESPN U

The UNLV Rebels will travel to Qualcomm Stadium to take on the San Diego State Aztecs this Saturday night in College Football action.

The UNLV Rebels snapped their 3-game losing streak and improved to 2-3 (1-0 MW) on the season after defeating the Fresno State Bulldogs, 45-20, this past Saturday. UNLV dominated the Bulldogs on the ground and had little trouble securing the victory after getting out to a 21-7 halftime lead. UNLV outgained Fresno State by a 493-360 margin and won the turnover battle by a 1-0 margin. Leading the way for Rebels was RB Charles Williams who had a TD and 153 rushing yards on 18 carries. On the season, UNLV is averaging 36.0 ppg on 435.2 total yards per game (162.0 passing, 273.0 rushing). Offensively, UNLV has been led by the RB duo of Lexington Thomas (16.2 att/g, 94.4 yds/g, 7 TD) and Charles Williams (9.8 att/g, 62.6 yds/g, 2 TD). QB Johnny Stanton has completed 46.7% of his passed for 6 TD and 6 INT while averaging 169.0 passing yds/g. Stanton also had a rushing TD on the season and averages 57.8 rushing yds/g. Leading the way for the UNLV receivers has been Devonte Boyd (3.6 rec/g, 65.8 yds/g, 3 TD) and Darren Woods Jr (2.6 rec/g, 37.8 yds/g, TD). Defensively, UNLV is allowing their opponents to average 30.4 ppg on 397.6 total yards per game (264.2 passing, 133.4 rushing). UNLV has forced 7 turnovers on the season and currently have a turnover margin of 0.

San Diego State vs. UNLV - 10/8/16 College Football Pick, Odds, and Prediction

USA TODAY Sports

The San Diego State Aztecs dropped to 3-1 (0-0 MW) on the season after being upset by the South Alabama Jaguars, 42-24, this past Saturday. San Diego State had a 24-21 lead entering the final quarter but struggled defensively in the 4th and allowed the Jaguars to score 21 unanswered points in the loss. San Diego State was outgained by South Alabama by a 331-316 margin and lost the turnover battle by a 2 to 1 margin. Leading the way for the Aztecs was Donnel Pumphrey who had 151 rushing yards and a TD on 25 carries. On the season, San Diego State is averaging 35.5 ppg on 411.0 total yards per game (176.3 passing, 234.8 rushing). Offensively, the Aztecs are led by RB Donnel Pumphrey who has 8 TD’s on the season and is averaging an incredible 187.5 rushing yds/g. QB Christian Chapman has completed 60.7% of his passes for 7 TD and 2 INT while averaging 174.3 passing yds/g. Leading the way for the Aztecs receivers have been WR Mikah Holder (3.0 rec/g, 72.5 yds/g, 3 TD), WR Eric Judge (3.3 rec/g, 37.3 yds/g), RB Donnel Pumphrey (2.8 rec/g, 18.5 yds/g), and RB Rashaad Penny (0.8 rec/g, 15.5 yds/g, 2 TD). Defensively, San Diego State is allowing their opponents to average 27.5 ppg on 361.0 total yards per game (261.8 passing, 99.3 rushing). San Diego State has forced 8 turnovers on the season and currently have a turnover margin of +3.

The Rebels are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games on grass however, are 0-5 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. The Aztecs are 7-0 ATS vs. a team with a losing record and 22-8-2 ATS in their last 32 conference games.

UNLV got a nice win against Fresno State to open up conference play and although their defense is ranked 85th in scoring defense, the Rebels do have the 43rd ranked scoring offense and 9th ranked rushing offense. San Diego State might have fell out of the top-25 with their loss against South Alabama but the Aztecs are still one of the Mountain West favorites with RB Donnel Pumphrey leading the way. UNLV is certainly headed in the right direction but the Rebels struggled last year against the Aztecs (52-14 L) and as I think San Diego State will come out strong at home in their conference opener, I’m taking to Aztecs to cover this spread at home. Take San Diego State to cover. 

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San Diego State Aztecs -17.5

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