Vanderbilt at Kentucky - 10/8/16 College Football Pick, Odds, and Prediction
Vanderbilt Commodores (2-3) at Kentucky Wildcats (2-3)
College Football: Saturday, October 8, 2016 at 4:00 pm (Commonwealth Stadium)
The Line: Kentucky Wildcats -3 -- Over/Under: 52 See the Latest Odds
The Vanderbilt Commodores and Kentucky Wildcats square off Saturday afternoon at Commonwealth Stadium.
The Vanderbilt Commodores need a win in order to get back to a .500 record and seek their first SEC road win since the 2013 season. Kyle Shurmur is completing 51.5 percent of his passes for 696 yards, three touchdowns and three interceptions. Shurmur has one or less touchdown passes in six of his last seven games. Kalija Lipscomb and C.J. Duncan have combined for 330 receiving yards and two touchdowns while Caleb Scott has five receptions. The Vanderbilt Commodores ground game is averaging 147.8 yards per contest, and Ralph Webb leads the way with 582 yards and five touchdowns. Defensively, Vanderbilt is allowing 23.6 points and 409.2 yards per game. Zach Cunningham leads the Vanderbilt Commodores with 52 tackles, Adam Butler has two sacks and Oren Burks has one interception.
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The Kentucky Wildcats look for their third straight home victory to get themselves to a decent .500 record. Stephen Johnson is completing 63.6 percent of his passes for 579 yards, three touchdowns and one interception. Johnson has moved the chains 24 times this season on 42 completions. Jeff Badet and Garrett Johnson have combined for 484 receiving yards and three touchdowns while C.J. Conrad has nine receptions. The Kentucky Wildcats ground game is averaging 171.8 yards per contest, and Stanley Boom Williams leads the way with 486 yards and two touchdowns. Defensively, Kentucky is allowing 35 points and 468 yards per game. Jordan Jones leads the Kentucky Wildcats with 51 tackles, Denzil Ware has three sacks and Blake McClain has two interceptions.
The Commodores are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a straight up loss and 15-7 ATS in their last 22 road games. The Wildcats are 17-35 ATS in their last 52 conference games and 3-9 ATS in their last 12 home games. The Commodores are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 meetings and the under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings.
Vanderbilt is horrible against SEC competition and hasn't won a road game in conference play since the 2013 season. Kentucky only looks like a real football team when playing at home where both of the Wildcats wins have come this season. The home team has also won five of the last six meetings between Kentucky and Vanderbilt. I'm simply not sure how anybody can back Vanderbilt on the road with any confidence.
Give me the Kentucky Wildcats at home and the small line.