Fresno State vs. San Diego State - 10/14/16 College Football Pick, Odds, and Prediction
San Diego State Aztecs (4-1) at Fresno State Bulldogs (1-5)
College Football: Friday, October 14, 2016 at 10:00 pm (Bulldog Stadium)
The Line: Fresno State Bulldogs +17.5 -- Over/Under: 57 See the Latest Odds
TV: CBS Sports Network
The San Diego State Aztecs will travel to Bulldog Stadium (CA) to take on the Fresno State Bulldogs this Friday night in College Football action.
The San Diego State Aztecs got back on track and improved to 4-1 (1-0 MW) on the season after defeating the UNLV Rebels, 26-7, this past Saturday. San Diego State was outstanding on the defensive end throughout the game and had no trouble putting away the Rebels after going up by a 20-7 margin at the end of the 3rd quarter. San Diego State outgained UNLV by a 460-122 margin and held the Rebels to just 9 passing yards. Leading the way for San Diego State was RB Donnel Pumphrey who had a 141 rushing yards and a TD on the ground to go along with 57 receiving yards. On the season, San Diego State is averaging 33.6 ppg on 420.8 total yards per game (184.0 passing, 236.8 rushing). Offensively, the Aztecs are led by RB Donnel Pumphrey who is the leading rusher in the country averaging 178.2 rushing yds/game. Pumphrey has 9 rushing TD’s on the year and also averages 3.6 rec/g for 26.2 yds/g. QB Christian Chapman has completed 63.3% of his passes for 8 TD and 2 INT while averaging 182.4 yds/g. The leading receivers for the Aztecs have been Mikah Holder (3.0 rec/g, 71.6 yds/g, 3 TD), Eric Judge (2.6 rec/g, 29.8 yds/g), and Rashaad Penny (1.0 rec/g, 22.4 yds/g, 3 TD). Defensively, San Diego State is allowing their opponents to average 23.4 ppg on 313.2 total yards per game (211.2 passing, 102.0 rushing). San Diego has done a nice job protecting the football on the season and currently have a turnover margin of +3.
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The Fresno State Bulldogs lost their 4th straight game and dropped to 1-5 (0-2 MW) on the season after being defeated by the Nevada Wolfpack, 27-22, this past Saturday. Fresno State had trouble stopping Nevada’s Wyatt Demps who had 3 TD’s and couldn’t fight back after being down by a 21-6 margin at halftime. Fresno State outgained Nevada by a 452-389 margin however, lost the turnover battle by a 2-1 margin. Leading the way for the Bulldogs was RB Dontel James who had 169 rushing yards and a TD on 27 carries. On the season, Fresno State is averaging 23.5 ppg on 337.8 total yards per game (248.2 passing, 129.7 rushing). Offensively, the Bulldogs have been led by RB Dontel James who is averaging 78.0 rushing yds/g and has 3 TD on the season. QB Chason Virgil has completed 48.6% of his passes for 9 TD and 4 INT while averaging passing 227.7 yds/game. Aaron Peck (4.7 rec/g, 79.8 yds/g, 3 TD), Jamire Jordan (4.0 rec/g, 67.5 yds/g, 2 TD), and KeeSean Johnson (6.0 rec/g, 67.0 yds/g, 3 TD) have been the leading receivers for the Bulldogs. Defensively, Fresno State is allowing their opponents to average 36.3 ppg on 449.8 total yards per game (179.5 passing, 270.3 rushing). Fresno State has only forced 5 turnovers on the season and currently have a turnover margin of -4.
The Aztecs are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing home record and 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a ATS win. The Bulldogs are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 Friday games however, are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS win.
San Diego State has to still be disappointed about their upset loss on the road against South Alabama that cost them their top-25 ranking and their chance at an undefeated season, however, have to be thrilled with the defensive performance they displayed in their recent win against UNLV. Fresno State has started to make some positive strides in their passing game as they have the 52nd ranked passing offense in the country however, the Bulldogs are still a very young team and will have trouble picking up wins with the 110th ranked scoring defense. San Diego State has the best RB in all of College Football in Donnel Pumphrey, who should be able to run at will against the 126th ranked rushing defense of the Bulldogs, and as I think the Aztec defense should be able to put up another similar defensive performance as they did against UNLV, I taking San Diego State will be able to cover this large spread on the road. Take San Diego State to cover.