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Louisville Cardinals vs. Duke Blue Devils - 10/14/16 College Football Pick, Odds, and Prediction

Duke Blue Devils (3-3) at Louisville Cardinals (4-1)

College Football: Friday, October 14, 2016 at 7:00 pm (Papa John's Cardinal Stadium)

The Line: Louisville Cardinals -27.5 -- Over/Under: See the Latest Odds

TV: ESPN

Coming up on Friday, October 14 from Papa John’s Cardinal Stadium, we’ve got a Week 7 ACC college football matchup between the Duke Blue Devils and the Louisville Cardinals. 

Duke comes into this matchup at 3-3 following an intense, rain-soaked victory 13-6 over Army this past Saturday. The Blue Devils jumped out to a 13-0 lead early on in the second quarter, and the Duke defense did the rest, smothering Army with three turnovers and a stout rush defense. The Blue Devils held Army to just 2-of-17 on third and fourth downs and allowed just 49 passing yards. 

Louisville Cardinals vs. Duke Blue Devils - 10/14/16 College Football Pick, Odds, and Prediction

USA TODAY Sports

So far this year for Duke, QB Daniel Jones has managed 1455 passing yards on a 132-of-212 line for seven TDs and eight picks. Jela Duncan owns the lead on the ground with 66 carries for 354 yards, while the Blue Devils’ top receiver is Anthony Nash with 27 receptions for 382 yards and two scores. 

As for Louisville, they’re sitting at 4-1, with their first loss coming at Clemson last weekend 36-42. In that game, the Cardinals were down 28-10 at the half, but stormed back with 16 unanswered points in the third. In the end, however, Louisville couldn’t stop Deshaun Watson, who scored five touchdowns for the Tigers. The Cardinals’ Lamar Jackson was an offensive dynamo as usual, going 27-of-44 for 295 yards and a TD, and also leading the team on 31 carries for 162 yards and two scores on the ground. WR Cole Hikutini led Louisville in receiving in Week 6 with seven receptions for 84 yards overall. 

On the season, Jackson has given Louisville a 101-of-170 mark passing for 1625 yards and 14 touchdowns, while on the ground Jackson leads the Cardinals with 92 carries for 688 yards and 14 touchdowns. James Quick is Louisville’s leading receiver so far with 23 receptions for 443 yards and four touchdowns. 

Duke is 11-0 ATS in their last 11 games on field turf, and 5-0 ATS in their last five games following a bye week. Duke is also 8-3 ATS in their last 11 road games, and 1-5 ATS versus a team with a winning record. 

Meanwhile, Louisville is 3-0-1 ATS in their last four games on field turf, and 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven games overall. Louisville is also 4-1 ATS in their last five home games, and 6-13 ATS in their last 19 Friday games. 

After a game last week that they very easily could have won, the Cardinals have a lot to prove at home against Duke. The Blue Devils are outmatched here offensively, as the Cardinals have scored at least 36 points in every game this year, including four outings of at least 59 points. Meanwhile, Duke has allowed at least 24 points in four of six games, and they won’t have a hurricane to help them here. There’s no doubt Louisville will win, the question is by how much. I see a focused Cardinals team coming back home here and covering the spread.

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Louisville Cardinals -27.5

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