Idaho vs. New Mexico State - 10/15/16 College Football Pick, Odds, and Prediction
New Mexico State Aggies (2-3) at Idaho Vandals (3-3)
College Football: Saturday, October 15, 2016 at 5:00 pm (Kibbie Dome)
The Line: Idaho Vandals -3 -- Over/Under: 68 See the Latest Odds
TV: SWX; Altitude 2; ESPN 3
The New Mexico State Aggies will travel to the Kibbie Dome to take on the Idaho Vandals this Saturday afternoon in College Football action.
The New Mexico State Aggies improved to 2-3 (1-1 Sun Belt) on the season after defeating the Louisiana Lafayette Ragin Cajuns, 37-31 in 2-OT, this past Saturday. In an exciting game, New Mexico State just needed any score in the 2-OT after the Ragin Cajuns missed a FG in their opening possession, and was able to get the victory after recovering a Larry Rose III fumble in the end-zone. New Mexico State outgained Louisiana Lafayette by a 499-432 margin in the victory. Leading the way for the Aggies was WR Gregory Hogan who had a TD and 172 receiving yards on 11 receptions. On the season, New Mexico State is averaging 27.8 ppg on 438.0 total yards per game (297.4 passing, 140.6 rushing). Offensively, New Mexico State has been led by QB Tyler Rodgers who has completed 53.8% of his passes for 7 TD and 9 INT while averaging 291.2 yds/game. Rodgers also can be a threat with his legs as he has 3 rushing TD’s on the season and averages 38.2 yds/game on the ground. Gregory Hogan (3.8 rec/g, 50.0 yds/g, 3 TD), Royce Caldwell (2.3 rec/g, 62.0 yds/g), OJ Clark (4.4 rec/g, 35.8 yds/g), and Johnathan Boone (2.4 rec/g, 33.4 yds/g, 2 TD) are the leading receivers for the Aggies. In the backfield, New Mexico State is led by Larry Rose III (17.5 att/g, 84.0 yds/g, TD) who returned to action a couple weeks ago after missing the first three games of the season due to injury. Defensively, New Mexico State is allowing their opponents to average 42.8 ppg on 494.0 total yards per game (233.4 passing, 260.6 rushing). New Mexico State currently has a turnover margin of -1 on the season.
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The Idaho Vandals improved to 3-3 (1-1 Sun Belt) on the season after defeating the Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks, 34-31, this past Saturday. Idaho jumped out early against Louisiana-Monroe, going up by a 24-7 margin early in the 2nd quarter, and was able to hang on late with a 27-yard game winning FG by Austin Rehkow. Idaho was outgained by Louisiana-Monroe by a 523-414 margin but did win the turnover battle by a 4-0 margin. Leading the way for the Vandals was RB Aaron Duckworth who had a TD and 121 rushing yards on 16 carries. On the season, Idaho is averaging just 20.0 ppg on 330.5 total yards per game (191.8 passing, 138.7 rushing). Offensively, Idaho is led by RB Aaron Duckworth who had 4 TD’s on the season and is averaging 73.67 yds/g on 14.5 att/g. QB Matt Linehan has completed 53.9% of his passes for 4 TD and 3 INT while averaging 185.5 passing yds/g. Linehan’s main threats at the receiver position have been TE Deon Watson (3.3 rec/g, 41.8 yds/g), TE Trent Cowan (3.2 rec/g, 32.0 yds/g, 2 TD), WR Alfonso Onunwor (3.0 rec/g, 27.7 yds/g), and WR Callen Hightower (3.2 rec/g, 31.6 yds/g, TD). Defensively, Idaho is allowing their opponents to average 37.8 ppg on 481.3 total yards per game (280.3 passing, 201.0 rushing). Idaho has forced their opponents into committing 12 turnovers on the season and has a turnover margin of +2.
The Aggies are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games following a straight up win however, just 7-17 ATS in their last 24 road games. The Vandals are 4-1 ATS vs. a team with a losing record however, just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up win.
New Mexico State has the best player on the field in Larry Rose III and has gotten solid QB play by Tyler Rodgers, however, for the Aggies to continue to pick up wins, they’ll need to find answers on the defensive end as they currently rank 126th in College Football when it comes to scoring defense. Idaho, although having three wins on the season, have struggled on both sides of the ball as they come into this game with the 116th ranked scoring offense and 113th scoring defense. New Mexico State was able to win a 55-48 shootout in OT last year at home and although it’s tough to take such a bad defense on the road, I think New Mexico State will be able to do enough on the offense end to keep this one at worse, within the number. Take New Mexico State and the points.