Miami-FL Hurricanes vs. North Carolina Tar Heels - 10/15/16 College Football Pick, Odds, and Prediction
North Carolina Tar Heels (4-2) at Miami-FL Hurricanes (4-1)
College Football: Saturday, October 15, 2016 at 3:30 pm (Hard Rock Stadium)
The Line: Miami-FL Hurricanes -7 -- Over/Under: See the Latest Odds
TV: ABC, ESP2
Down at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens on Saturday, October 15, we’ve got a great-looking Week 7 ACC college football matchup ahead as the North Carolina Tar Heels face off against the Miami Hurricanes.
North Carolina is 4-2 on the year coming off a rain-soaked 34-3 loss to Virginia Tech, and there wasn’t much offense to be found in that one. Tar Heels QB Mitch Trubisky went just 13-of-33 for 58 yards and a pair of interceptions. T.J. Logan provided the only semblance of an offense for North Carolina, carrying 14 times for 67 yards.
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So far this year, Trubisky is 146-of-208 for 1769 yards and a 13:2 TD:INT ratio, while Elijah Hood leads the Tar Heels in rushing with 67 carries for 338 yards and four TDs. Ryan Switzer is the high man in North Carolina’s receiving game, bagging 49 catches for 589 yards and two touchdowns.
Over on the Miami side, they’re entering this weekend with a 4-1 record so far, with their lone loss coming last weekend against Florida State 20-19. That game ended in one of the toughest ways imaginable: with 1:38 remaining, the Seminoles blocked a Miami extra-point try that would have tied the game, and that proved to be the difference. Hurricanes QB Brad Kaaya went 19-of-32 for two touchdowns and a pick in that one, while Stacy Coley led the way in receiving with seven grabs for 80 yards and both TDs. On the ground, Hurricanes RBs Mark Walton and Joseph Yearby each had 39 yards in a paltry outing that resulted in just 62 rush yards overall.
On the Miami season, Kaaya has put up an 82-for-127 line for 1149 yards and a 10:4 TD:INT ratio. Walton leads the Hurricanes in rushing with 77 carries for 484 yards and eight scores, while Ahmmon Richards is tops among receivers with 15 catches for 304 yards and a touchdown.
North Carolina is 7-2 ATS in their last nine games in October, and 5-2 ATS in their last seven games following a straight-up loss. The Tar Heels are also 6-1 ATS in their last seven games following an ATS loss, and 9-4 ATS against a team with a winning record.
As for Miami, they’re 4-0 ATS in their last four games following a straight-up loss, and 5-1 ATS in their last six games on grass. Miami is also 4-1 ATS in their last five games after posting fewer than 100 yards rushing in their previous game, and 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall.
The Tar Heels are normally quite adept at putting up numbers on offense, and I’m willing to chalk that Virginia Tech drubbing up to the hurricane conditions. Outside of that game and North Carolina’s opening loss to Georgia, the Tar Heels have put up at least 37 points in each of their four wins. Miami, on the other hand, is pretty good at scoring as well, with at least 35 points in each of their four wins. I think the Tar Heels have enough talent on offense to make this game competitive, and though they probably won’t win outright, I think North Carolina will cover.