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Cincinnati vs. East Carolina - 10/22/16 College Football Pick, Odds, and Prediction

East Carolina Pirates (2-4) at Cincinnati Bearcats (3-3)

College Football: Saturday, October 22, 2016 at 7:00 pm (Nippert Stadium)

The Line: Cincinnati Bearcats -1.5 -- Over/Under: See the Latest Odds

TV: CBS Sports Network

The East Carolina Pirates will travel to Nippert Stadium to take on the Cincinnati Bearcats this Saturday night in College Football action.

The East Carolina Pirates had last week off after their game against the Navy Midshipmen was postponed due to Hurricane Matthew. Prior to last week, East Carolina lost their 4th straight game and dropped to 2-4 (0-2 AAC) on the season after being defeated by the South Florida Bulls, 38-22. East Carolina had no answers on the defense side of the ball throughout the game and couldn’t fight back after falling behind 17-6 at halftime. East Carolina was outgained by South Florida by a 556-476 margin and allowed the Bulls to gain 306 yards on the ground. Leading the way for East Carolina was WR Zay Jones who had 18 receptions for 145 yards and a TD. On the season, East Carolina is averaging 28.0 ppg on 515.3 total yards per game (378.0 passing, 137.3 rushing). Offensively, the Pirates are led by WR Zay Jones who has 3 TD’s on the season and is averaging 140.0 yds/ game on 14.0 rec/game. WR Jimmy Williams (3.3 rec/g, 78.3 yds/g, 3 TD), Quay Johnson (5.7 rec/g, 58.7 yds/g, 2 TD), and RB Anthony Scott (3.5 rec/g, 27.2 yds/g, 3 TD) all are having solid seasons when it comes to the passing game of the Pirates. QB Philip Nelson has completed 68.7% of his passes for 11TD and 4 INT while averaging 306.8 yds/game. Leading the East Carolina backfield has been James Summers (10.67 att/g, 59.83 yds/g, 3 TD) and Anthony Scott (10.33 att/g, 51.0 yds/g, 2 TD). Defensively, East Carolina is holding their opponents to an average of 32.7 ppg on 420.8 total yards per game (225.8 passing, 195.0 rushing). East Carolina has been really hurt by turnovers as they’ve committed 14 turnovers on the season and have a turnover margin of -9.

Cincinnati vs. East Carolina - 10/22/16 College Football Pick, Odds, and Prediction


The Cincinnati Bearcats lost their 2nd straight game and dropped to 3-3 (0-3 AAC) on the season after being defeated by the UConn Huskies, 20-9, on October 8th. Cincinnati couldn’t find the end zone once against the Huskies and couldn’t hang on for the victory after having a 9-7 lead at halftime. Cincinnati was outgained by UConn by a 412-317 margin however, did win the turnover battle by a 2-0 margin. Leading the way for the Bearcats was WR Devin Gray who had 9 receptions for 98 yards. On the season, Cincinnati is averaging 23.0 ppg on 398.3 total yards per game (273.5 passing, 124.8 rushing). Offensively, Cincinnati has been led by QB Hayden Moore who has completed 56.6% of his passes for 7 TD and 4 INT while averaging 275.0 passing yds/game. Devin Gray (4.8 rec/g, 73.7 yds/g, TD), Nate Cole (5.8 rec/g, 60.7 yds/g, 4 TD), and Kahlil Lewis (4.0 rec/g, 49.8 yds/g, 2 TD) have been the leading receivers for the Bearcats. Cincinnati’s backfield is led by the duo of Tion Green (12.67 att/g, 60.0 yds/g, 2 TD) and Mike Boone (13.3 att/g, 42.3 yds/g, 2 TD). Defensively, Cincinnati is holding their opponents to an average of 25.3 ppg on 418.7 total yards per game (262.2 passing, 156.5 rushing). Cincinnati has forced opponents into committing 15 turnovers on the season, however, have an overall turnover margin of just +1. 

The Pirates are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games in October and just 2-4 ATS on the season. Cincinnati are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 home games and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games overall.

East Carolina has really struggled with turnovers however, do come into the game with the 3rd ranked passing attack in the country and have one of the best receivers in the country in Zay Jones. Cincinnati hasn’t been able to get much production in their rushing game but has to be happy to get QB Hayden Moore back after he missed a few games due to injury. East Carolina has really struggled on the defense end as they rank 97th in scoring defense however, the Pirates have been decent at defending the pass as they have the 64th ranked passing defense in College Football. We’ll have to keep an eye out on the status of East Carolina’s QB, Philip Nelson, who is currently questionable due to an undisclosed injury. I’m tempted to go with East Carolina in this as Cincinnati has just looked awful since their loss to Houston, however, as the Bearcats have a healthy Hayden Moore back and will be at home, I’m taking Cincinnati to cover this small spread. Take Cincinnati to cover. 

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Cincinnati Bearcats -1.5

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