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Fresno State vs. Air Force - 10/28/16 College Football Pick, Odds, and Prediction

Air Force Falcons (4-3) at Fresno State Bulldogs (1-7)

College Football: Friday, October 28, 2016 at 10:30 pm (Bulldog Stadium)

The Line: Fresno State Bulldogs +13.5 -- Over/Under: See the Latest Odds

TV: ESPN 2

The Air Force Falcons will travel Bulldog Stadium (CA) to take on the Fresno State Bulldogs this Friday night in College Football action.

The Air Force Falcons lost their 3rd straight game and dropped to 4-3 (1-3 MW) on the season after being defeated by the Hawaii Rainbow Warriors, 34-27 in 2OT, this past Saturday. Air Force had a chance to win the game at the end of regulation, however, Luke Strebel missed a 32 yard FG as time expired. Air Force outgained Hawaii by a 409-387 margin however, did lose the turnover battle by a 3-2 margin. Leading the way for the Falcons was RB Shayne Davern who has 98 rushing yards and a TD. On the season, Air Force is averaging 33.3 ppg on 452.3 total yards per game (160.9 passing, 291.4 rushing). Air Force currently has the 5th ranked rushing offense in the country which is led by RB D.J. Johnson (14.1 att/g, 64.6 yds/g), RB Jacobi Owens (9.3 att/g, 62.0 yds/g, 3 TD), RB Shayne Davern (11.7 att/g, 43.6 yds/g, 2 TD), RB Timothy McVey (5.1 att/g, 40.3 yds/g, 5 TD), and QB Nate Romine (12.3 att/g, 36.1 yds/g, 3 TD). QB Nate Romine has completed just 40.4% of his passes for 9 TD and 4 INT while averaging 158.4 passing yards/game. Jalen Robinette (3.0 rec/g, 81.1 yds/g, 4 TD), Timothy McVey (0.7 rec/g, 23.7 yds/g, 2 TD), and Ryan Reffitt (0.9 rec/g, 19.0 yds/g, 2 TD) are the leading receivers for the Falcons. Defensively, Air Force is holding their opponents to an average of 26.1 ppg on 350.3 total yards per game (229.0 passing, 121.3 rushing). Air Force has committed 10 turnovers on the season and has an overall turnover margin of -2.

Fresno State vs. Air Force - 10/28/16 College Football Pick, Odds, and Prediction

USA TODAY Sports

The Fresno State Bulldogs lost their 6th straight game and dropped to 1-7 (0-4 MW) on the season after being defeated by the Utah State Aggies 38-20, this past Saturday. Fresno State once again struggled on the defensive end and was outscored by a 21-6 margin in the 2nd half in the loss. Fresno State was outgained by Utah State by a 392-319 margin. Fresno State was led by RB Dontel James who had 80 rushing yards and a TD. On the season, Fresno State is averaging 20.5 ppg on 350.4 total yards per game (229.1 passing, 121.3 rushing). Offensively, the Bulldogs have been led by QB Chason Virgil who has completed 51.8% of his passes for 10 TD and 6 INT while averaging 213.8 passing yards per game. Virgil’s main targets on the season has been WR Jamire Jordan (4.4 rec/g, 65.1 yds/g, 2 TD), KeeSean Johnson (6.3 rec/g, 64.6 yds/g, 3 TD), and WR Aaron Peck (4.9 rec/g, 73.0 yds/g, 2 TD). Leading the way for the Bulldogs backfield has been Dontel James (20.3 att/g. 72.8 yds/g, 4 TD). Defensively, Fresno State is allowing their opponents to average 34.1 ppg on 431.9 total yards per game (167.1 passing, 264.8 rushing). Fresno State has forced just 5 turnovers on the season and has an overall turnover margin of -7.

The Falcons are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games on field turf however, are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing road record. The Bulldogs are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall and 4-1 in their last 5 home games.

Air Force was able to get off to a great 4-0 start this year which included a 28-14 win over Navy, however, have really struggled defensively as of late as during their 3-game losing streak, the Falcons are allowing their opponents to average 38.0 ppg. Fresno State decided to let go of Head Coach Tim DeRuyter after their loss to Utah State and will hope intern coach, Eric Kiesau, will be able to find some answers and the Bulldogs currently rank 121st in scoring offense and 109th in scoring defense.  Air Force should be able to do some damage on the ground against the Bulldogs 124th ranked rushing defense, however, as the Bulldogs have been competitive at home this season (14-3 loss to SDSU; 48-41 loss to Tulsa) and should come out fired up to get a win for their new coach, I’m taking Fresno State to cover with the points in this one. Take Fresno State and the points. 

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Fresno State Bulldogs +13.5

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