USF vs. Navy - 10/28/16 College Football Pick, Odds, and Prediction
Navy Midshipmen (5-1) at USF Bulls (6-2)
College Football: Friday, October 28, 2016 at 7:00 pm (Raymond James Stadium)
The Line: USF Bulls -6.5 -- Over/Under: 65 See the Latest Odds
TV: ESPN 2
The 22nd ranked Navy Midshipmen will travel to Raymond James Stadium to take on the South Florida Bulls this Thursday night in College Football action.
The 22nd ranked Navy Midshipmen won their 2nd straight game and improved to 5-1 (4-0 AAC) after defeating the Memphis Tigers, 42-28, this past Saturday. Navy used their triple-option rushing attack to accumulate 447 rushing yards in the victory. Navy outgained Memphis by a 532-431 margin and dominated the time of possession (39:48 – 20:12). Leading the way for the Midshipmen was QB Will Worth who rushed for 201 yards and 3 TD’s while also completed 3 of 4 passes for 85 yards and 2 TD’s. On the season, Navy is averaging 33.8 ppg on 415.3 total yards per game (122.2 passing, 293.2 rushing). Offensively, Navy is led by their rushing attack which currently ranks 4th in the country. Will Worth (22.2 att/g, 81.5 yds/g, 9 TD), Chris High (9.2 att/g, 65.3 yds/g, 5 TD), Dishan Romine (4.8 att/g, 42.7 yds/g), Toneo Gulley (3.67 att/g, 31.8 yds/g), and Shawn White (4.83 att/g, 16.2 yds/g, 3 TD) led the way for the Midshipmen rushing attack. QB Will Worth has completed 37 of 62 passes on the season for 688 yards, 5 TD, 2 INT. Jamir Tillman (3.2 rec/g, 47.7 yds/g, TD), Darryl Bonner (0.8 rec/g, 23.5 yds/g, TD), and Brandon Colon (.5 rec/g, 15.5 yds/g, TD) are the leading receivers for Navy. Defensively, Navy is holding their opponents to an average of 25.0 ppg on 404.0 total yards per game (256.0 passing, 148.0 rushing). Navy has forced 8 turnovers on the season and has an overall turnover margin of 1.
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The South Florida Bulls has their three game winning streak snapped and dropped to 6-2 (3-1 AAC) after being defeated by the Temple Owls, 46-30, this past Friday. South Florida struggled throughout the game stopping the Temple run game and was outscored by the Owls by a 26-7 margin over the last 19 minutes of the game. South Florida was outgained by Temple by a 528-352 margin and lost the turnover battle by a 1-0 margin. The Bulls were led by QB Quinton Flowers who completed 11 of 19 passes for 187 yards and 2 TD while also adding 90 yards and a TD on the ground. On the season South Florida is averaging 42.4 ppg on 487.1 total yards per game (231.6 passing, 255.5 rushing). Offensively, the Bulls are led by duel-threat QB Quinton Flowers who has completed 58.5% of his passes for 15 TD and 5 INT while averaging 215.3 passing yds/game. Flowers is also the 2nd leading rusher for South Florida as he has 8 rushing TD’s while averaging 93.1 yds/g on 13.5 att/g. Also in the backfield for the Bulls is Marlon Mack (13.7 att/g, 94.1 yds/g, 10 TD), D’Ernest Johnson (7.4 att/g, 40.1 yds/g, 4 TD). Rodney Adams (4.3 rec/g, 62.8 yds/g, 4 TD), Marquez Valdes-Scantling (2.0 rec/g, 34.8 yds/g, 3 TD), and Tyre McCants (1.5 rec/g, 22.6 yds/g, TD) are the leading WR’s for the Bulls. Defensively, South Florida is allowing their opponents to average 28.4 ppg on 447.6 total yards per game (241.4 passing, 206.3 rushing). South Florida has forced 13 turnovers on the season and has an overall turnover margin of +2.
The Midshipman are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 conference games however, just 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 road games. The Bulls are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games following a straight up loss and 6-2 ATS in their last 8 non-conference games.
Navy was able to follow-up their impressive win against Houston with another solid performance against the Memphis Tigers in which they once again dominated their opponents in terms of rushing and time of possession. South Florida suffered a bit of a letdown against Temple and although they have one of the more explosive offenses in the country, need to find some answers on the defensive end as the Bulls have allowed their opponents to average 34.0 ppg over their last 5 games. Navy should be able to generate some success on the ground against South Florida rushing defense that ranks 100th in the country, however, South Florida is a very tough place to play as the Bulls are 8-3-1 ATS at home over their last 12 games. Navy is a very good team however, as the Midshipmen haven’t looked great on the road this season, along with the fact that I feel the Bulls will have a solid bounce back game in this important conference matchup, I’m taking the Bulls to cover this small spread at home. Take South Florida to cover.