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NC State Wolfpack vs. Florida State Seminoles - 11/5/16 College Football Pick, Odds, and Prediction

Florida State Seminoles (5-3) at NC State Wolfpack (4-4)

College Football: Saturday, November 5, 2016 at 7:00 pm (Carter-Finley Stadium)

The Line: NC State Wolfpack +6.5 -- Over/Under: See the Latest Odds

TV: ESPU

Over at Carter-Finley Stadium in Raleigh on Saturday, November 5, the ACC will be coming alive in Week 10 with a nice-looking college football matchup between the Florida State Seminoles and the North Carolina State Wolfpack. 

Florida State enters this game with a 5-3 record this year and are fresh off a heartbreaker 37-34 loss against Clemson. In that matchup, the Seminoles gave up 430 yards of total offense to Clemson QB Deshaun Watson, which fueled the loss. Florida State QB Deondre Francois put up a 17-of-35 line for 286 yards and a TD in the game, while Dalvin Cook controlled the offensive output on 19 carries for 169 yards and four touchdowns. Nyqwan Murray had a great game here for the Seminoles with his six catches for 96 yards and a TD. 

NC State Wolfpack vs. Florida State Seminoles - 11/5/16 College Football Pick, Odds, and Prediction

USA TODAY Sports

So far this season for Florida State, Francois is 155-of-256 for 2162 yards and an 11:4 TD:INT ratio, while Cook has been “cooking” on 178 carries for 1069 yards and 11 touchdowns. Travis Rudolph leads the Seminoles in receiving with 35 catches for 560 yards and three scores. 

Over on the North Carolina State side, they’re entering play here with a 4-4 record, skidding after their third straight loss—a 21-14 defeat by Boston College this past Saturday. During that game, North Carolina State QB Ryan Finley went 23-of-41 with 307 yards and two touchdowns, but also had two interceptions. Matthew Dayes led a lackluster Wolfpack rushing attack with 19 carries for 45 yards, and Bra’Lon Cherry was NC State’s lead receiver with three catches for 105 yards and a TD. 

On the year thus far, Finley is 148-for-240 for 1815 yards and a 13:6 TD:INT ratio, and Dayes leads the Wolfpack with 144 carries, 727 yards and four touchdowns on the ground. Stephen Louis is tops in the North Carolina State receiving game with 21 receptions for 422 yards and one TD. 

Florida State is 4-0 ATS in their last four games in November, and 4-1 ATS in their last five road games. Florida State is also 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games on grass, and 9-4 ATS in their last 13 overall. 

As for North Carolina State, they’re 4-1 ATS in their last five home games, and 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games in November. North Carolina State is also 1-4 ATS in their last five games following a straight-up loss, and 1-4 ATS in their last five games following an ATS loss. 

The game plan on defense for NC State here is pretty simple: stop Dalvin Cook. Florida State has a huge advantage in the running game, but don’t have a whole lot to fall back on if Cook struggles. On the flip side, Finley has to play mistake-free football for North Carolina State, and also get a round of contributions from his role-players. That seems like a lot to ask, so I’m going to go with Cook and Florida State to put up a clock-controlling effort here and cover.

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Florida State Seminoles -6.5

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