New Mexico vs. Nevada - 11/5/16 College Football Pick, Odds, and Prediction
Nevada Wolf Pack (3-5) at New Mexico Lobos (5-3)
College Football: Saturday, November 5, 2016 at 10:15 pm (University Stadium)
The Line: New Mexico Lobos -13 -- Over/Under: See the Latest Odds
TV: ESPN U
The Nevada Wolfpack will travel to University Stadium (NM) to take on the New Mexico Lobos this Saturday night in College Football action.
The Nevada Wolfpack lost their 2nd straight game and dropped to 3-5 (1-3 MW) after being defeated by the Wyoming Cowboys, 42-34, on October 22nd. Nevada had no answers for Wyoming’s Brian Hill and couldn’t come back after falling behind by a 42-27 margin with just under 3 minutes to play. Nevada was outgained by Wyoming by a 540-479 margin and lost the turnover battle by a 1-0 margin. Leading the way for the Wolfpack was QB Ty Gangi who completed 27 of 43 passes for 300 yards, 1 TD, and an INT. On the season, Nevada is averaging 22.5 ppg on 369.9 total yards per game (200.1 passing, 169.8 rushing). Offensviely, Nevada has been led by RB James Butler who has 7 TD’s on the season and is averaging 111.9 yds/game on 21.5 att/g. QB Ty Gangi who has completed 31 of 53 passes on the season for 404 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT will replace QB Tyler Stewart (63.2%, 145.1 yds/g, 9 TD, 3 INT) who will miss the rest of the season due to a shoulder injury. Wyatt Demps (4.6 rec/g, 54.0 yds/g, 6 TD), James Butler (3.3 rec/g, 33.3 yds/g, 2 TD), Hasaan Henderson (3.2 rec/g, 32.3 yds/g, TD), and Jerico Richardson (2.6 rec/g, 27.4 yds/g, TD) are the leading receivers for Nevada. Defensively, Nevada is allowing their opponents to average 27.5 ppg on 444.1 total yards per game (175.9 passing, 268.3 rushing). Nevada has committed just 5 turnovers on the season and has an overall turnover margin of +4.
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The New Mexico Lobos won their 3rd straight game and improved to 5-3 (3-1 MW) on the season after defeating the Hawai’i Rainbow Warriors, 28-21, this past Saturday. New Mexico allowed Hawai’i to fight back into the game after taking a 14-0 lead but was able to secure the victory after a Lee Crosby 46-yard fumble return gave the Lobos the lead for good with 8:53 left to play. New Mexico outgained Hawai’i by a 321-298 margin. Leading the way for the Lobos was RB Tyrone Owens who had a TD and 134 rushing yards on 12 carries. On the season, New Mexico is averaging 38.5 ppg on 463.9 total yards per game (106.9 passing, 357.0 rushing). Offensively, New Mexico comes into this matchup with the top-ranked rushing offense in the country. Leading the Lobo’s rushing attack has been Tyrone Owens (12.5 att/g, 102.6 yds/g, 5 TD), Teriyon Gipson (10.8 att/g, 116.0 yds/g, 8 TD), and Richard McQuarley (9.5 att/g, 44.8 yds/g, 11 TD). QB’s Lamar Jordan and Austin Apodaca have combined to complete 64 of 117 passes for 801 yards, 7 TD, and 5 INT on the season. New Mexico started Lamar Jordan in their recent win but did go with Austin Apodaca in the 2nd half to try and open up the passing game. Patrick Reed (1.0 rec/g, 20.5 yds/g, TD) and Q’ Drennan (1.0 rec/g, 19.6 yds/g, 2 TD) have been the leading receivers for the Lobos. Defensively, New Mexico is allowing their opponents to average 32.3 ppg on 367.9 total yards per game (224.5 passing, 143.4 rushing). New Mexico has committed 11 turnovers on the season and has an overall turnover margin of -3.
The Wolfpack are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games in November however, are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 conference games. The Lobos are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing road record and 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games in November.
Nevada had their best offensive game of the year against Wyoming but it still wasn’t enough as their 124th ranked rushing defense allowed the Cowboys Brian Hill to run for 289 yards and 3 TD’s. New Mexico has been playing well as of late and although their rushing offense didn’t pile on the yards as much as we’ve become accustomed to expect against Hawai'i, the Lobos have to be have happy with their defensive effort against the Rainbow Warriors. Nevada is 0-4 on the road this season and as between the fact that the Nevada rush defense can’t seem to stop anyone and that Nevada’s QB Ty Gangi will be making his first road start, I’m going to take New Mexico to cover this spread. Take New Mexico to cover.