UCF vs. Tulane - 11/5/16 College Football Pick, Odds, and Prediction
Tulane Green Wave (3-5) at UCF Knights (4-4)
College Football: Saturday, November 5, 2016 at 5:00 pm (Bright House Networks Stadium)
The Line: UCF Knights -16.5 -- Over/Under: See the Latest Odds
TV: ESPN 3
The Tulane Green Wave will travel to Bright House Networks Stadium to take on the UCF Knights this Friday night in College Football action.
The Tulane Green Wave lost their 3rd straight game and dropped to 3-5 (0-4 AAC) on the season after being defeated by the SMU Mustangs, 35-31, this past Saturday. Tulane scored the first 21 points in the 2nd half to overcome a 21-10 halftime deficit, however, allowed two SMU rushing TD’s with less than 7 minutes left to play in the loss. Tulane was outgained by SMU by a 439-391 margin however, did win the turnover battle by a 2-1 margin. Leading the way for the Green Wave was RB Dontrell Hilliard who had a TD and 111 rushing yards on 13 carries while adding 35 receiving yards on 3 receptions. On the season, Tulane is averaging 28.4 ppg on 355.6 total yards per game (107.6 passing, 248.0 rushing). Offensviely, Tulane is led by their rushing attack which is ranked 16th in the country. Leading the Green Wave rushing attack has been Dontrell Hilliard (13.0 att/g, 80.0 yds/g, 8 TD), Josh Rounds (9.8 att/g, 65.4 yds/g, 5 TD), and Lazedrick Thompson (6.1 att/g, 37.0 yds/g, 4 TD). QB Glen Cuiellette has completed 42.7% of his passes for 8 TD and 4 INT while averaging 102.1 passing yds/game. Terren Encalade (3.4 rec/g, 47.1 yds/g, 6 TD) and Darnell Mooney (1.5 rec/g, 18.5 yds/g, TD) have been the biggest threats at the WR position for the Green Wave. Defensively, Tulane is allowing their opponents to average 27.6 ppg on 368.6 total yards per game (203.9 passing, 164.8 rushing). The Green Wave has forced 19 turnovers on the season and has an overall turnover margin of +10.
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The UCF Knights dropped to 4-4 (2-2 AAC) on the season after being defeated by the Houston Cougars, 31-24, this past Saturday. UCF held a 21-3 halftime lead in this one however, the Knights had trouble containing Houston’s Greg Ward Jr. in the 2nd Half and couldn’t hang on for the victory. UCF was outgained by Houston by a 398-195 margin and committed 4 turnovers in the loss. Leading the way for the Knights was WR Tre’Quan Smith who had 137 yards on 13 receptions. On the season, UCF is averaging 31.1 ppg on 377.1 total yards per game (205.5 passing, 171.6 rushing). Offensviely, the Knights have been led by QB McKenzie Milton who has completed 60.0% of his passes for 8 TD and 4 INT while averaging 223.0 passing yds/game. UCF runs the ball on average, 44.3 times a game, and is led in the backfield by Dontravious Wilson (11.8 att/g, 46.9 yds/g, 8 TD), Jawon Hamilton (10.1 att/g, 38.0 yds/g, 2 TD), Adrian Killins (3.6 att/g, 32.9 yds/g, 3 TD), and McKenzie Milton (11.6 att/g, 18.0 yds/g, 2 TD). Tre’Quan Smith (4.5 rec/g, 62.1 yds/g, 3 TD), Jordan Akins (1.9 rec/g, 34.8 yds/g, 2 TD), and Taylor Oldham (2.5 rec/g, 31.3 yds/g) have been the biggest threats for the Knights at the receiver position. UCF is allowing their opponents to average 24.6 ppg on 366.0 total yards per game (229.9 passing, 136.1 rushing). UCF has committed 15 turnovers on the season and has an overall turnover ratio of 0.
The Green Wave are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 road games however, just 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall. The Knights are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall however, just 2-8 ATS in their last 10 home games.
Tulane has been much more competitive this season than expected however, as defenses have adjusted to stop the rushing attack the Green Wave just can’t get much done through air. UCF and 1st year Head Coach Scott Frost has done an outstanding job getting the UCF program back on the track and have been very competitive in the AAC this season as their 2 losses have come in close losses vs. Temple and Houston. Both teams are headed in the right direction under their respected head coaches, however, UCF is the better team in this matchup and as Tulane has struggled a bit on the road this season, I just don’t see them being able to cover with the points in this road matchup. I’m taking the UCF Knights to cover this large spread at home!