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Illinois Fighting Illini at Wisconsin Badgers - 11/12/16 College Football Pick, Odds, and Prediction

Illinois Fighting Illini (3-6) at Wisconsin Badgers (7-2)

College Football: Saturday, November 12, 2016 at 3:30 pm (Camp Randall Stadium)

The Line: Wisconsin Badgers -26.5 -- Over/Under: 40.5 See the Latest Odds

TV: ESPN2

Up at Camp Randall Stadium in Madison on Saturday, we’ve got a nice Big 10 college football matchup looming in Week 11 between the Illinois Fighting Illini and the Wisconsin Badgers. 

Illinois limps into this matchup with a 3-6 record on the season, but the Illini did win their last game, a home tilt against Michigan State that ended 31-27. In that one, Illinois QB Jeff George Jr. went 13-of-29 for 140 yards and two touchdowns, while RB Kendrick Foster did most of the work on his 17 carries for 146 yards and two scores. Sam Mays was the high man for Illinois with four catches for 39 yards and one TD. 

Illinois Fighting Illini at Wisconsin Badgers - 11/12/16 College Football Pick, Odds, and Prediction

USA TODAY Sports

On the season thus far, Wes Lunt (who is currently injured) still leads the Illinois passing attack with a 78-of-129 line for 840 yards and six touchdowns. Foster is tops in the run game with 94 carries for 596 yards and seven TDs, while Malik Turner leads Illinois in receiving with 35 catches for 523 yards. 

Over on the Wisconsin side, they’re entering play here with a nice 7-2 record and a No. 7 overall ranking. The Badgers have won three in a row, most recently a 21-7 victory over Northwestern. During that game, Wisconsin QB Alex Hornibrook went 11-of-19 for 92 yards, and Corey Clement had another fine game with 32 carries for 106 yards and one touchdown. Jazz Peavy had a pretty good day for the Badgers in receiving with four catches for 73 yards. 

Through the 2016 season so far, Hornibrook is 86-of-150 for 1040 yards and a 6:7 TD:INT mark, while Clement leads the Wisconsin pack with 193 carries, 805 yards and seven scores. Peavy is tops in the Badgers receiving game with his 31 catches for 481 yards and three touchdowns. 

Illinois is 6-1 on the under in their last seven games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game, and 5-1 on the under in their last six road games versus a team with a winning home record. The Fighting Illini are also 4-1 ATS in their last five road games. 

Meanwhile, Wisconsin is 4-0-1 on the under in their last five home games versus a team with a losing road record, and 5-0 on the under in their last five games following a straight-up win. Wisconsin is also 6-1 ATS in their last seven conference games, and the over is 9-4 in these teams’ last 13 meetings. 

It’s really not a big secret what Wisconsin is doing: running the ball and playing defense. The Badgers have allowed 17 points or fewer in all but one of their games so far, and they probably won’t have much trouble controlling the scoreboard here, either. Illinois is just inconsistent on both sides of the ball, and I have little faith in their defense being able to stop Clement. That said, with this huge line I think the Illini can cover here.

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Illinois Fighting Illini +26.5

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