Nevada vs. San Diego State - 11/12/16 College Football Pick, Odds, and Prediction
San Diego State Aztecs (8-1) at Nevada Wolf Pack (3-6)
College Football: Saturday, November 12, 2016 at 10:30 pm (Mackay Stadium)
The Line: Nevada Wolf Pack +22.0 -- Over/Under: See the Latest Odds
TV: CBS Sports Network
The San Diego State Aztecs will travel to Mackay Stadium to take on the Nevada Wolfpack this Saturday night in College Football action.
The San Diego State Aztecs won their 5th straight game and improved to 8-1 (5-0 MW) on the season after defeating the Hawaii Rainbow Warriors, 55-0, this past Saturday. San Diego State was no match for Hawaii and easily had this game wrapped up after taking a 27-0 halftime lead. San Diego State outgained Hawaii by a 393-215 margin and won the turnover battle by a 4-1 margin. Leading the way for the Aztecs was RB Donnel Pumphrey who had 112 yards on 21 carries. On the season, San Diego State is averaging 35.8 ppg on 415.0 total yards per game (141.1 passing, 273.9 rushing). Offensviely, the Aztecs are led by the nation’s leading rusher in Donnel Pumphrey who has 13 rushing TD’s on the season and is averaging 175.7 rushing yds/game. Also in the backfield with Pumphrey have been Rashaad Penny (10.11 att/g, 64.0 yds/g, 7 TD) and Juwan Washington (4.2 att/g, 28.6 yds/g, 3 TD). QB Christian Chapman has completed 61.3% of his passes for 13 TD and 4 INT while averaging 137.9 passing yds/game. Mikah Holder (2.1 rec/g, 47.6 yds/g, 3 TD), Rashaad Penny (1.0 rec/g, 20.1 yds/g, 3 TD), and David Wells (1.7 rec/g, 16.7 yds/g, 2 TD) have been the main receiving targets for the Aztecs. Defensively, San Diego State is holding their opponents to an average of 15.1 ppg on 273.2 total yards per game (187.2 passing, 86.0 rushing). San Diego State has forced opponents into committing 18 turnovers on the season and has an overall turnover margin of +8.
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The Nevada Wolfpack lost their 3rd straight game and dropped to 3-6 (1-4 MW) on the season after being defeated by the New Mexico Lobos, 35-26, this past Saturday. Nevada fought back from a 14-deficit entering the 4th quarter but allowed the Lobos to score a TD with just 2:54 left to put the game out of reach for the Wolfpack. Nevada was outgained by New Mexico by a 473-409 margin and allowed New Mexico to rush for 373 yards. Leading the way for the Wolfpack was QB Ty Gangi who completed 19 of 34 passes for 301 yards, 3 TD, and 2 INT. On the season, Nevada is averaging 22.9 ppg on 374.3 total yards per game (211.3 passing, 162.9 rushing). Offensively, Nevada has been led by RB James Butler who has 8 TD on the season and is averaging 109.9 rushing yds/game. QB Ty Gangi played well in his first career start against New Mexico and will continue to be the starting QB after the Wolfpack lost QB Tyler Stewart (63.2 Comp %, 9 TD, 3 INT, 145.1 yds/g) for the season due to injury. Wyatt Demps (4.8 rec/g, 58.2 yds/g, 7 TD), James Butler (2.9 rec/g, 29.6 yds/g, 2 TD), Jerico Richardson (2.7 rec/g, 29.3 yds/g, TD), and Hasaan Henderson (3.3 rec/g, 32.3 yds/g, TD) are the leading receivers for the Wolfpack. Defensively, Nevada is allowing their opponents to average 28.3 ppg on 447.9 total yards per game (167.4 passing, 279.9 rushing). Nevada has only committed 7 turnovers on the season and has an overall turnover margin of 4.
The Aztecs are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing home record and 12-3-1 ATS vs. a team with a losing record. The Wolfpack are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 conference games and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
San Diego State continues to dominate Mountain West opponents as over their last 4 games, the Aztecs have won by an average of 36.3 ppg. Nevada has had a tough season and although they have a solid RB in James Butler, the Wolfpack has had trouble finding the scoreboard as they come into this matchup with just the 108th ranked scoring offense in College Football. San Diego State has the best RB in the country in Donnel Pumphrey which should have a field day against Nevada’s 127th ranked rushing defense and as I don’t feel that the Wolfpack will have much success against the Aztec’s 7th ranked scoring defense, I’m taking San Diego State to cover this large road spread. Take San Diego State to cover.