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UCF vs. Cincinnati - 11/12/16 College Football Pick, Odds, and Prediction

Cincinnati Bearcats (4-5) at UCF Knights (5-4)

College Football: Saturday, November 12, 2016 at 12:00 pm (Bright House Networks Stadium)

The Line: UCF Knights -10 -- Over/Under: See the Latest Odds

TV: ESPN U

The Cincinnati Bearcats will travel to Bright House Networks Stadium to take on the UCF Knights this Saturday afternoon in College Football action.

The Cincinnati Bearcats lost their 2nd straight game and dropped to 4-5 (1-4 AAC) on the season after being defeated by the BYU Cougars, 20-3, this past Saturday. Cincinnati couldn’t get anything going on the offensive end and couldn’t comeback after falling behind by a 17-3 margin at the end of the 3rd quarter. Cincinnati was outgained by BYU by a 337-295 margin. Leading the way for the Bearcats was WR Devin Gray who had 7 receptions for 105 yards. On the season, Cincinnati is averaging 20.6 ppg on 376.0 total yards per game (256.3 passing, 119.7 rushing). Offensively, QB Gunner Kiel (54.5 Comp %, 6 TD, 1 INT, 118.8 yds/g) has started the last two games for the Bearcats replacing Hayden Moore (56.6 Comp %, 7 TD, 4 INT, 275.0 yds/g). The leading receivers for Cincinnati has been Devin Gray (5.1 rec/g, 54.4 yds/g, 5 TD), Kahlil Lewis (4.2 rec/g, 54.4 yds/g, 5 TD), and Nate Cole (4.9 rec/g, 48.8 yds/g, 4 TD). Tion Green (13.1 att/g, 62.1 yds/g, 2 TD) and Mike Boone (11.7 att/g, 43.1 yds/g, 2 TD) have made up the Bearcats backfield on the season. Defensively, Cincinnati is allowing their opponents to average 25.0 ppg on 425.2 total yards per game (242.8 passing, 182.4 rushing). Cincinnati has forced their opponents into committing 20 turnovers on the season and has an overall turnover margin of +3.

UCF vs. Cincinnati - 11/12/16 College Football Pick, Odds, and Prediction

USA TODAY Sports

The UCF Knights improved to 5-4 (3-2 AAC) on the season after easily defeating the Tulane Green Wave, 37-6, this past Saturday. UCF allowed Tulane to take an early lead, however, scored 37 unanswered points to secure the victory.  UCF was outgained by Tulane by a 348-297 margin however, did win the turnover battle by a 5-2 margin. Leading the way for the Knights was DB Drico Johnson who had two defensive TD’s for the Knights. On the season, UCF is averaging 31.8 ppg on 368.2 total yards per game (199.3 passing, 168.9 rushing). Offensively, UCF has been led by QB McKenzie Milton who has completed 58.2% of his passes for 8 TD and 5 INT while averaging 200.0 yds/game. Dontravious Wilson (11.3 att/g, 44.8 yds/g, 8 TD), Jawon Hamilton (9.7 att/g, 37.1 yds/g, 2 TD), and Adrian Killins (3.8 att/g, 34.4 yds/g, 3 TD) have been the main threats in the backfield for the Knights. Tre’Quan Smith (4.2 rec/g, 57.3 yds/g, 3 TD) and Jordan Akins (1.7 rec/g, 30.9 yds/g, 2 TD) have been the leading receivers for UCF. Defensively, UCF is holding their opponents to an average of 22.6 ppg on 364.0 total yards per game (211.9 passing, 152.1 rushing). UCF has forced their opponents into committing 20 turnovers on the season and has an overall turnover margin of +3.

The Bearcats are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games in November however, just 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games overall. The Knights are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games overall and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 conference games.

Cincinnati has lost 4 of their last 5 games and continue to struggle on the offensive end as the Bearcats rank just 93rd in College Football when it comes to total offense. UCF has been one of the more surprising teams this season as the UCF Knights, after going winless in the 2015 season, are just one win away from becoming bowl eligible. UCF isn’t that dynamic on the offensive end however, as I feel their defense will have little trouble containing the Bearcats struggling offense at home, I think UCF does enough to cover this spread. Take UCF to cover. 

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UCF Knights -10

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