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Written by Randy Chambers on March 16, 2014

New Mexico State Aggies vs. San Diego State Aztecs - 3/20/14: Randy's Free College Basketball Pick Against the Spread
Photo by: Christopher Hanewinckel-USA TODA

The San Diego State Aztecs look to advance in the tournament with a win over the New Mexico State Aggies.

In a Thursday NCAA tournament matchup, the New Mexico State Aggies and San Diego State Aztecs will clash Thursday. The Aggies won the WAC, while the Aztecs received an at-large bid after going 29-4 in the Mountain West.

The Aggies are one of the more balanced teams in the country, as they average 76.6 points on 48.7 percent shooting offensively, and allow 67.5 points on 40.6 percent shooting defensively. New Mexico State is led by junior guard Daniel Mullings, who averages 16.8 points, 4.9 rebounds and 3.5 assists. New Mexico State also has great overall size, averaging 37.5 rebounds per game. New Mexico State's weakness would be their shaky 68.8 percent free throw shooting. NMSU is 8-5 ATS overall this season.

It’s no secret the Aztecs will go only as far as their defense takes them. SDSU allows 57.8 points on 39.6 percent shooting and haven’t allowed a 70-point performance in 14 straight games. Offensively, San Diego State averages 68.4 points on 42.5 percent shooting. The Aztecs are led by senior guard Xavier Thames, who averages 16.8 points and 3.2 assists. However, San Diego State can struggle mightily to put the ball in the hoop and shoot only 65.3 percent from the free throw line. San Diego State is 18-12 ATS overall.

The Aggies are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 non-conference games and 2-8-2 ATS in their last 12 vs. Mountain West. The Aztecs are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 vs. Western Athletic and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 neutral site games. 

The Aggies have a solid basketball team and match up well with the Aztecs. The problem is they haven't consistenly seen a team like San Diego State all season. NMSU played Arizona and lost 74-48. Gonzaga beat them 80-68. I see this game falling in the same boat, as the Aztecs are clearly the better and more athletic team here.

Eat the chalk. 

 

Randy's Pick: San Diego State Aztecs -6


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