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Florida Gators vs. Dayton Flyers - 3/29/14 South Region

Dayton Flyers (26-10) at Florida Gators (35-2)

College Basketball: Saturday, March 29, 2014 at 6:09 pm (FedExForum)

The Line: Florida Gators -10.5 -- Over/Under: 132.5 See the Latest Odds

TV: TBS

The Dayton Flyers and Florida Gators will play Saturday afternoon for a spot in the Final Four.

Dayton is this year’s NCAA tournament Cinderella after beating Ohio State, Syracuse and Stanford. A month ago, the Flyers weren’t even considered an NCAA tournament team. On the season, Dayton averages 72.8 points on 46.5 percent shooting and allows 67.1 points on 43.7 percent shooting. The Flyers have several players who can shoot the ball well, including Jordan Sibert, who leads Dayton with 12.5 points per game and 43 percent shooting from downtown. However, Dayton has been winning with defense lately, holding its opponents to 40.3 percent shooting in its last five games. The Dayton Flyers are 20-12 ATS overall this season.

Florida Gators vs. Dayton Flyers - 3/29/14 South Region

Nelson Chenault-USA TODAY Sports

Florida has rolled over Albany, Pittsburgh and UCLA to make it this far in the tournament. The Gators have fulfilled expectations and look like the best team in the tournament right now. On the season, Florida averages 70.6 points on 46.4 percent shooting and allows 57.8 points on 39.9 percent shooting. Offensively, the Gators have four players averaging in the double figures and Michael Frazier II has made at least one three in 20 straight games. However, the Gators are known for their pressuring defense and have held 10 straight opponents to 68 or less points. The Florida Gators are 18-14-1 ATS overall this season.

The Flyers are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games overall and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 NCAA Tournament games. The Gators are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS win and 20-8 ATS in their last 28 NCAA Tournament games.

It’s no secret this should be the end of Dayton’s magical run, as Florida is by far the better team in this matchup. But double digits is a little too steep for my taste with everything on the line in this game.

Dayton will play with energy and should make just enough shots to keep this game within the projected number. 

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Dayton Flyers +10.5

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