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Kentucky Wildcats vs. Michigan Wolverines - 3/30/14 Midwest Region

Kentucky Wildcats (27-10) vs. Michigan Wolverines (28-8)

College Basketball: Sunday, March 30, 2014 at 5:05 pm (Lucas Oil Stadium)

The Line: Michigan Wolverines +2.5 -- Over/Under: 137 See the Latest Odds

TV: CBS

The Kentucky Wildcats and Michigan Wolverines will meet Sunday in an Elite Eight matchup that sends the winner to the Final Four.

Kentucky is coming off wins over Kansas State, Wichita State and Louisville to make it this far in the tournament. On the season, the Kentucky Wildcats average 75.4 points on 45.1 percent shooting and allow 66.5 points on 40.8 percent shooting. Kentucky is a young, physical team that averages 41.3 rebounds per game and is led by freshman Julius Randle, who averages 15.1 points and 10.6 rebounds. Kentucky has held five of its last six opponents to 69 or less points. The Kentucky Wildcats are 18-15-2 ATS overall this season.

Kentucky Wildcats vs. Michigan Wolverines - 3/30/14 Midwest Region

Bob Donnan-USA TODAY Sports

The Michigan Wolverines have beaten Wofford, Texas and Tennessee to get to this point in the tournament. On the season, Michigan averages 74 points on 47.7 percent shooting and allows 64.8 points on 44.2 percent shooting. Unlike the Wildcats, the Wolverines are a much smaller team and average just 31.9 rebounds, but Michigan does shoot 40.2 percent from beyond the arc, which has led to 10 games this season where the offense has scored 80 or more points. Michigan knocked down 11 threes in the win over a solid defensive Tennessee squad. The Michigan Wolverines are 18-14-2 ATS overall this season. 

The Wildcats are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games overall and 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 vs. Big Ten. The Wolverines are 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 NCAA Tournament games and 3-0-2 ATS in their last 5 non-conference games. 

While Kentucky is finally playing to its potential and will have a huge advantage on the glass, I just don’t see the Wildcats having enough offensive firepower to match the Wolverines in this one. Kentucky has very streaky shooters and can go cold from the field at times, while Michigan is shooting 45 percent from beyond the arc in its last five games.

As long as the shots continue to fall, I have to keep backing the Wolverines.

Getting plus money is a gift in my eyes.  

Michigan Wolverines +2.5

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