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Atlantic Sun Quarterfinal-North Florida Ospreys vs. Stetson Hatters - 3/3/15 College Basketball Pick, Odds, and Prediction

Stetson Hatters (9-21) at North Florida Ospreys (20-11)

College Basketball: Tuesday, March 3, 2015 at 7:30 pm (UNF Arena)

The Line: North Florida Ospreys -18.5 -- Over/Under: See the Latest Odds

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The  Stetson Hatters hope to extend their season when they face the North Florida Ospreys at UNF Arena.

 

Atlantic Sun Quarterfinal-North Florida Ospreys vs. Stetson Hatters - 3/3/15 College Basketball Pick, Odds, and Prediction

USA TODAY Sports

I think the Stetson Hatters 9-21 record doesn’t need explanation and their 3-11 conference mark says the Atlantic Sun has been just too tough. That will happen when getting outscored 74-67 with the defense struggling to hold the opposition to under 70 points while the offense was all over the map and was just as likely to put 55 points up or 70 points. The biggest performance was a four point defeat at Florida State early in the season which is something of a head scratcher with losses by double figures being far more common then close  wins or defeats.

 

The Hatters best opportunity of winning in the postseason lies on the shoulders of Kentwan Smith who averages almost 14 points and seven rebounds on 52% marksmanship. Divine Myles is next in line with around eleven points  while three others provide between eight to ten points. The Hatters will need a Herculean performance from Smith who simply can’t afford to have an off night shooting the basketball. My gut tells me that North Florida might double him and force the rest of the team to beat them although Stetson has a few guys that can shoot the ball and have double digit scoring potential.

 

The North Florida Ospreys have been an afterthought in the Atlantic Sun but have been a force with a 12-2 record to win the conference crown while going 20-11 overall.  If you are a fan of offensive basketball the Ospreys are a team to watch at 76 points on an impressive 47% team shooting. The defense does seem vulnerable at times with over 68 points given up although that typically hasn’t been an issue with their scoring prowess. A win over Purdue and a two point loss to Northwestern were strong efforts but a pair of defeats to a struggling Tennessee Tech is baffling.

 

As expected there are no shortage of weapons at the offensive end of the floor with four double digit scorers and a pair of nine + scorers giving the ospreys plenty of options.  Dallas Moore is the most dangerous at 15 points on 48% marksmanship while the trio of  Jalen Nesbitt, Beau Beech and Chris Davenport combine for over 36 points and give the Ospreys most of their muscle on the backboards with nearly 18. Altogether UNF has seven players seeing  at least 18 minutes which means the opposition ha so many quality options to deal with the worse shooter sinking shots at 43%.

 

The Hatters are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a S.U. loss and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. Stetson are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 road games and  0-5 ATS in their last 5 games overall. The Osprey are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record. I think this could be a titanic rout or the Hatters barely cover because the line is dead on…

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Stetson +18.5

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