Texas vs. Texas Tech - Big 12 Tournament - 3/11/15 Pick, Odds, and Prediction
Texas Tech Red Raiders (13-18) at Texas Longhorns (19-12)
College Basketball: Wednesday, March 11, 2015 at 9:30 pm (Sprint Center)
The Line: Texas Longhorns -9.5 -- Over/Under: See the Latest Odds
TV: ESPN U
The Texas Tech Red Raiders and Texas Longhorns battle in the first round of the Phillips 66 Big 12 Championship at the Sprint Center this Wednesday night.
The Texas Tech Red Raiders finished in the basement of the Big 12 and will be playing as the 10th seed in the Big 12 tournament as they finished with a 3-15 conference record and 13-18 overall record. Texas Tech was able to pull off a few upsets at home however, struggled throughout the season due to an offensive that had trouble generating points. Texas Tech is ranked 173rd in the RPI Standings and has played the 55th ranked SOS. Texas Tech’s biggest wins of the season all game at home against Iowa State, Kansas State, and Oklahoma State.
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Texas Tech has averaged 61.2 ppg (ranked 308th) on 40.3% shooting (ranked 303rd). The Red Raiders average 5.3 three-pointers per game (ranked 272nd) on 31.7% three-point shooting (ranked 279th). Texas Tech commits 13.9 turnovers per game (ranked 288th) and has a 0.8 assist/turnover ratio (ranked 303rd). Defensively, Texas Tech is holding their opponents to an average of 64.3 ppg (ranked 118th) on 42.6% shooting (ranked 166th). The Red Raiders average 4.1 bpg (ranked 95th) and 5.9 spg (ranked 210th). Leading the way for the Texas Tech on the season has been Devaugntah Williams (10.6 ppg, 3.0 rpg, 1.6 apg) and Robert Turner (8.2 ppg, 2.9 rpg, 1.8 apg).
The Texas Longhorns finished the season with a 19-12 record and earned the 7th seed in the Big 12 Tournament with an 8-10 conference record. Texas was expected to be one of the best teams in the country however, really struggled in conference play this year as they went on two separate 4-game losing streaks during the season and had trouble with the upper-tier teams of the Big-12. Texas is ranked 42nd in the RPI Standings and has played the 11th ranked SOS. The Longhorns biggest wins of the season have come against Iowa (71-57) and Baylor (61-59 OT) however, they were able to go just 2-9 against Top 25 RPI rated teams.
Texas has averaged 68.1 ppg (ranked 158th) on 43.6% shooting (ranked 169th). The Longhorns average 6.2 three-pointers per game (ranked 193rd) on 33.9% three-point shooting (ranked 192nd). Texas commits an average of 12.8 turnovers per game (ranked 200th). Defensively, Texas is holding their opponents to an average of 60.4 ppg (ranked 36th) on 36.4% shooting (ranked 4th). The Longhorns average 7.9 bpg (ranked 1st) and pull down 39.81 total rpg (ranked 6th). Texas has a rebound margin of 8.2 (ranked 9th) however, has a turnover margin of -3.7 (ranked 337th).
The Red Raiders are 13-27 ATS in their last 40 games following a ATS win however, 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall. The Longhorns are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS win and 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record.
Texas was able to defeat Texas Tech in both matchups this season (70-61 at Texas Tech; 56-41 at Texas). Texas Tech has lost 6 of their last 7 games going into the conference tournament and ended 0-12 on the road this season (0-2 Neutral Sites). Texas picked up big victories last week as they were able to defeat both Baylor and Kansas State at home, which has placed them directly on the bubble for an at-large bid. Although this line is quite high for a Texas team that has underperformed this season, Texas Tech hasn’t shown that they can do anything on the offensive end away from home all season (averaged 49.8 ppg on the road in Big-12 play). Texas knows they must win a few a games in the Big-12 Tournament to have chance to make the NCAA Tournament and with the motivation, I think that the Longhorns and their defensive win this one easily by double-digits. Take Texas to cover.