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Michigan State vs. Duke - 4/4/15 Final Four Pick, Odds, and Prediction

Michigan State Spartans (27-11) at Duke Blue Devils (33-4)

College Basketball: Saturday, April 4, 2015 at 6:09 pm (Lucas Oil Stadium)

The Line: Duke Blue Devils -5 -- Over/Under: 139 See the Latest Odds

TV: TBS

The Michigan State Spartans and Duke Blue Devils meet Saturday in the Final Four.

The Michigan State Spartans have won eight of their last nine and are coming off a win over Louisville. On the season, MSU is averaging 71.4 points on 46.7 percent shooting and is allowing 63.2 points on 39.3 percent shooting. Travis Trice is averaging 15.3 points and 5.1 assists while Denzel Valentine is averaging 14.3 points and 6.2 rebounds. Branden Dawson is the third double-digit scorer and Matt Costello is grabbing 5.2 rebounds. The Michigan State Spartans have five players averaging at least seven points, and they’re shooting 63.2 percent from the line and 38.6 percent from deep. Defensively, MSU is allowing 31.6 percent shooting from deep and has given up 63 or less points in four of its last six games.  

Michigan State vs. Duke - 4/4/15 Final Four Pick, Odds, and Prediction

USA TODAY Sports

The Duke Blue Devils have lost once since February and are coming off a win over Gonzaga. On the season, Duke is averaging 79.5 points on 50.2 percent shooting and is allowing 64.3 points on 42.3 percent shooting. Jahlil Okafor is averaging 17.5 points and 8.7 rebounds while Quinn Cook is averaging 15.5 points and 2.7 assists. Justise Winslow is grabbing 6.3 rebounds and Tyus Jones is dishing 5.7 assists. The Duke Blue Devils have four double-digit scorers, and they’re shooting 69.5 percent from the line and 39 percent from deep. Defensively, Duke is allowing 31.3 percent shooting from deep and has given up 57 or less points in four straight games.

The Spartans are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 NCAA Tournament games and 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games following a S.U. win. The Blue Devils are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 NCAA Tournament games and 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a S.U. win. The over is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings. 

I've been riding Michigan State for much of the season and aren't as surprised as others that the Spartans have made it this far. However, Duke is flat out playing at another level and seems poised to make an honest run towards another title. MSU and the points are tempting, but I think Duke takes this game and covers the small chalk late. There's just no answer for the amount of offensive weapons Duke has. 

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Duke Blue Devils -5

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