Belmont vs. Austin Peay - 3/4/16 College Basketball Pick, Odds, and Prediction
Austin Peay Governors (16-17) vs. Belmont Bruins (20-10)
College Basketball: Friday, March 4, 2016 at 7:30 pm (Nashville Municipal Auditorium)
The Line: Belmont Bruins -10 -- Over/Under: 160 See the Latest Odds
TV: ESPN U
The Austin Peay Governors and Belmont Bruins will face off at the Nashville Municipal Auditorium in the semifinals of the Ohio Valley Conference tournament this Friday night.
The 8-seed Austin Peay Governors was able to come back from a 38-27 halftime deficit to upset the 4-seed Tennessee State Tigers, 74-73, this past Thursday. Austin Peay was down by as many as 19 points in the 2nd half but used a 28-10 run to get back in the game and got some key FT’s from Josh Robinson late in the game to complete the comeback. Austin Peay shot 48.9% from the field and 43.8% (7-16) from beyond the arc. The Governors held the Tigers to 42.6% shooting from the field and 14.3% (2-14) from three-point range. Leading the way for Austin Peay was Chris Horton who had a double-double with 15 points, 12 rebounds, 4 assists, and 3 blocks. On the season, the Governors have been led by Chris Horton (19.0 ppg, 12.1 rpg, 1.3 apg, 1.4 spg), Josh Robinson (16.3 ppg, 3.1 rpg, 2.5 apg, 1.0 spg), and Khalil Davis (11.5 ppg, 4.1 rpg, 2.8 apg, 1.3 spg). Offensively, Austin Peay is averaging 75.2 ppg on 45.9% shooting from the field and 33.3% from beyond the arc. The Governors average 5.9 three-pointers per game and have an assist/turnover ratio of 0.96. Defensively, Austin Peay is allowing an average of 75.5 ppg on 45.5% shooting. The Governors have a rebound margin of 2.6 and average 7.1 steals per game.
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The Belmont Bruins came into the season as the favorites in the Ohio Valley Conference and didn’t disappoint as they finished the regular season with a 20-10 record and earned the top-seed in the OVC tournament with a 12-4 conference record. Belmont is one of the best offensive teams in the country and got a few big wins at Marquette and at home against Valparaiso. Leading the way for the Bruins this season has been Evan Bradds (17.3 ppg, 9.6 rpg, 2.1 apg) and Craig Bradshaw (16.3 ppg, 4.0 rpg, 3.4 apg, 1.3). Also contributing for Belmont has been Taylor Barnette (10.5 ppg, 2.1 rpg, 2.0 apg) and Austin Luke (6.0 ppg, 2.8 rpg, 6.2 apg). Offensively, Belmont is averaging 81.9 ppg on 49.2% shooting from the field and 36.5% shooting from beyond the arc. The Bruins average 10.5 three-pointers per game and have an assist/turnover ratio of 1.20. Defensively, Belmont is allowing their opponents to average 77.3 ppg on 43.6% shooting. The Bruins have a rebound margin of -0.9 and have a turnover margin of -2.0.
Austin Peay was defeated by Belmont by a 76-58 on the road in the only matchup against the two teams this season in which the Austin Peay was held to one of their lowest scoring totals of the season. Austin Peay has won four straight games and has been getting it down lately on the offensive end as they have been averaging 82.3 ppg during their winning streak. Belmont’s offensive ranks 15th in the country in scoring offense and 9th in FG% however, can struggle on the defensive end as they rank 289th in the country in scoring defense. Austin Peay has one of the better big men in the conference in Chris Horton however, as they Governors defense ranks just 282nd in defense FG% and for the fact that Austin Peay will be playing their 3rd game in three days, I think Belmont will be able to put up plenty up points in this one to cover the expected large spread. Please check back when the line is posted for updates, but unless the number for Belmont is outrageous, I’m going with the Bruins in this one.
Update: The line looks like it's at 10 and I'm still going to go with Belmont.